861 AXNT20 KNHC 132210 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Dec 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W passing 05N34W to 02N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 37W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front extends from near Tampa Bay to just offshore the Texas coast, with a trough then extending southward to the western Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh E winds dominate the eastern and central basin, with gentle to moderate winds in the west. Seas are 2 to 5 ft. No significant convection is occurring. For the forecast, the front and trough will dissipate by tonight. Fresh east winds will spread westward through the Straits of Florida and into the eastern Gulf S of 26N through midweek along with building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. combined with lower pressure over Colombia is leading to a pressure gradient over the basin supportive of fresh winds over much of the basin, with locally strong winds in the Windward Passage, south of Cuba and Hispaniola, and offshore Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the far SW Caribbean off the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama in association with the east Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will continue over the south- central Caribbean through the week especially during the overnight hours. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. Strong high pressure will build over the western Atlantic through the forecast period, which will result in fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds and building seas in the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba, and south of Hispaniola through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N58W to 28N70W, then transitions to a dissipating stationary front to near Fort Pierce, Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted along this boundary E of 63W. Winds on both sides of the boundary are generally moderate to fresh. Seas in this area are in the 4-7 ft range. A 1031 mb Azores high is centered near 37N31W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh to strong winds from 10N to 26N and between 18W to 55W. Seas are in the 7 to 11 ft range in this region. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Medium to high ash concentrations are expected near and south of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will dissipate this evening and the cold front will move east of the area tonight. High pressure will build in their wake. This will increase winds over the forecast waters, mainly S of 25N, through the week. $$ KONARIK