000 AXNT20 KNHC 071722 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: A strengthening Azores high will tighten the pressure gradient off the coast of Morocco, generating localized N-NE gales and 12-15 ft seas by Thursday morning in the marine zone Agadir. Please ready the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is over the African continent. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N30W to the coast of South America near 06N55W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-06N between 28W- 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends over the northern Gulf of Mexico crossing the Florida coast near 29N84W, becoming a stationary boundary from 29N87W to the Mexican coast near Tampico at 22N98W. A surface trough extends from the Bay of Campeche to the southeast Gulf of Mexico with isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity of 24N86W. High pressure of 1019 mb near Tampa Bay extends surface ridging over the central Gulf generating mainly gentle anticyclonic winds in the eastern and central Gulf with seas of 1-2 ft. Moderate northerly winds are present northwest of the stationary front along the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico, where seas are 3-4 ft. For the forecast, the stationary front will retreat inland by tonight. A ridge will build westward across the basin, with a high pressure cell remaining over the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow will set-up across the western and central Gulf on Fri and Sat, ahead of a strong cold front forecast to push off the Texas coast by Sat morning. Increasing winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. Gale conditions are possible behind the front during the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent scatterometer data indicates strong to locally near gale force NE-E winds off the coast of Colombia. These winds are generating 8-10 ft seas in the south-central and southwest Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades dominate the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. Moderate trades are generating 3-5 ft seas in the northwest Caribbean. Dry conditions dominate the majority of the basin with isolated passing showers. For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere except in the NW Caribbean where mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected. By Thu night into Fri, as high pressure strengthens over the western Atlantic, expect fresh to locally strong NE winds in the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba. This will persist through Sat while extending eastward toward Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The combination of a surface trough extending across the northwest Bahamas to 30N75W and upper-level divergence is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the trough axis between 70W and 75W and from 25N to 31N. Farther east, a second trough is noted from 30N58W to 21N57W. Recent scatterometer data indicates fresh SE winds east of the trough. Between the two troughs, surface ridging is keeping winds gentle. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds prevail across the central tropical Atlantic north of the ITCZ between 30W and 50W. Seas in this area are 7-10 ft. Between 60W and the Bahamas seas are 3-5 ft. An upper-level low W of the Canary Islands is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 25N and east of 23W. For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge will prevail along 26N-27N through late this week. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge, especially south of 22N, including the waters just N of Hispaniola and approaches to the Windward Passage. A weak cold front will stall over the far northern waters today, then lift northward by tonight. Another cold front will move over the northern forecast waters Thu and Fri while dissipating. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. The latest advisory states that low ash concentration is expected near and W of the volcano. $$ Flynn/Hagen