000 AXNT20 KNHC 060532 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Dec 05 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N14W, to 06N20W 03N27W 03N44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 90 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 20W and 23W, and from 01N to 04N between 44W and 46W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 29N77W, across central Florida, to 28N88W in the Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico at the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. Fresh NE winds are within 75 nm to the north of NW Cuba between the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Moderate or slower wind speeds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet. High pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will shift slowly ESE across the basin through Sun. Tranquil conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the weekend. A weak cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late Mon, briefly, with moderate to locally fresh northerly winds behind it. The front could linger through Tue night, with gentle to moderate winds along it. The next front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Wed and stall through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area. The GFS model for 500 mb shows that SE wind flow is moving through the area that is from 80W westward. The GFS model for 700 mb shows that E wind flow is moving through the area that is from 80W westward. An anticyclonic circulation center is on top of the Cayman Islands, at 500 mb and at 700 mb. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong is between NW Cuba and Honduras from 80W westward. The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 10N74W, beyond Panama near 08N82W, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 270 nm to the north of the monsoon trough, and within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough. Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with broken to overcast low level clouds, that are moving with the low level wind flow, in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh winds are in the eastern half of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh winds are in the western half of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 16N southward between 77W and 82W. Sea heights of 6 feet are within 135 nm to the south of Hispaniola between 70W and 73W, and elsewhere from 18N southward between 70W and 82W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Weak high pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Caribbean Sea into next week. Fresh winds also will pulse to strong at night off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela, as well as south of Hispaniola. NE winds also will pulse to strong near the Windward Passage tonight. Moderate NE to E swell in the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean is expected to continue into next week. Active weather in the western Caribbean Sea will end by Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front from the north reaches a 1018 mb low pressure center that is near 30N52W. A warm front extends from the low pressure center, to 30N51W. A cold front continues from 30N51W, to 22N56W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are within 100 nm to the east of the cold front from 25N northward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 135 nm to the east of the cold front, from 25N northward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and comparatively drier air in subsidence that is apparent in water vapor imagery, cover the area from 15N northward from 41W eastward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 48W eastward. Strong winds are from 24N northward from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 44W eastward, and from 20N southward between 44W and 60W. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet from 20N northward between 44W and the cold front. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from the cold front westward. Mostly fresh winds cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean, with some areas of moderate or slower wind speeds. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. Weak high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico, and in the eastern U.S., will build slowly south and east into the area through Mon. This will support generally tranquil conditions in the SW N Atlantic Ocean for the next several days. Moderate NE to E swell in the Atlantic waters E of 70W is expected to persist through Mon. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected offshore of the N Florida waters Wed, becoming light to moderate by Thu. $$ mt/mmt