000 AXNT20 KNHC 020522 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Dec 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African continent, reaching the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 10N16W. The ITCZ continues from 10N16W to 05N30W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 20W and 31W. Similar convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ axis between 40W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging extends from the southeast U.S. to the central Gulf resulting in gentle E winds across most of the basin. A surface trough extends NE from the Yucatan Peninsula to near 23N86W resulting in an area of moderate to fresh NE winds surrounding the Yucatan Channel and waters west of the Peninsula. Seas are 1-3 ft across the Gulf of Mexico. For the forecast, high pressure building across the northern Gulf will dominate the basin through the weekend. This high pressure will gradually move eastward, returning the east to southeast flow across the northwest Gulf by the end of the week. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may enter the northern Gulf late Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from near Hispaniola across the central Caribbean to the coastal waters off western Venezuela. Isolated showers remain within 60 nm of the trough axis. A satellite scatterometer pass revealed fresh E to NE winds over the eastern and central Caribbean including the Windward passage, with gentle to moderate E winds in the northwest Caribbean. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range over most of the basin except 1 to 3 in the northwest Caribbean and reaching heights of 7 ft offshore N Colombia. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will maintain generally moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean through the weekend, with fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at night. Moderate to fresh NE winds will also be possible over the Windward Passage and Mona Passage. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N55W to 25N65W. Isolated showers may still be east of the boundary N of 27N, however, most significant convection has dissipated. Fresh E to NE winds are west of the front and N of 23N. Gentle E winds remain ahead of the boundary to near 45W. Seas range from 4 to 6 ft except for west of 75W where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Farther east, fresh to strong winds are noted north of 15N and east of 45W. Seas over this area are in the 7 to 10 ft range. Fresh winds are elsewhere south of 20N, with seas in the 6-8 ft range. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will continue to build south and east into the area into the weekend, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N by late Fri. $$ MORA