000 AXNT20 KNHC 302250 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Nov 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea and extends to near 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 03N35W to 04N49W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 03N to 06N between 20W and 43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 mb high pressure is centered over the southeast United States. Gentle to moderate mainly NE to N winds prevail over the basin. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to ft in the Yucatan Channel and to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula. No convection is occurring. For the forecast, high pressure building across the northern Gulf will dominate the basin through the week. This high pressure will move eastward through the week, returning the east to southeast flow across the northwest Gulf by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1015 mb low is located just offshore the Yucatan Peninsula, with as surface trough extending NE from the low to just offshore western Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the trough and low. Another surface trough has moved through the Lesser Antilles this afternoon, with moderate convection also occurring within 60 nm on both sides of its axis. The eastward extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough reaches across Panama into the far SW Caribbean along 09N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection associated with this trough is confined to waters S of 11N. Fresh winds prevail across most of the basin, but locally strong winds are occurring in the Gulf of Venezuela, N of Colombia, and just offshore Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas average 4 to 6 ft, except some 7 ft seas in the SW basin and 2 to 4 ft seas in the NW basin. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean through the end of the week and into the weekend, with fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at night. Moderate to fresh NE winds will also be possible over the Windward Passage and Mona Passage. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N56W becomes stationary as it nears the SE Bahamas. A surface trough follows this front from 30N62W to 25N73W. There is also a pre-frontal trough that extends from 26N61W to 22N67W. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the front north of 27N between 53W and 58W. Gentle to moderate mainly NE winds prevail on both sides for the front. Seas are up to 8 ft north of 29N between 64W and 70W due to a NW-N swell. Seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere in the W Atlantic, NE of the Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed from 29N43W to 24N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm E of this trough. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring S of 10N and W of 50w, in association with upper-level divergence. Fresh to strong NE to E trades are occurring E of 40W as well as areas S of 20N, with seas of 8 to 11 ft. For the remainder of the basin, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall tonight from near 30N55W to the Turks and Caicos Islands, then dissipate Wed. High pressure will settle across the forecast area in the wake of the front, and dominate the region through the weekend. $$ KONARIK