576 AXNT20 KNHC 292303 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Nov 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09.5N13W and continues to 06N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N18W to 02.5N37W. A surface trough is along 40W extending from 01N to 08N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 00N to 06N between 10W and 19W, and from 02N to 08N between 28W and 43W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 11N between 47W and 56W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has exited the basin in recent hours and extends from the central Bahamas across NW Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula to coastal sections of the Mexican state of Campeche. Behind this boundary, strong high pressure is building across the Gulf of Mexico resulting in fairly tranquil weather conditions, except for scattered moderate to heavy showers along the Mexican coastal waters of the Bay of Campeche. Recent scatterometer satellite data and surface observations showed fresh to occasionally strong N-NE winds behind the frontal boundary, mainly South of 27N. The strongest winds were found offshore Veracruz. Seas of 6-9 ft prevail behind the front to 25N, with the highest seas occurring offshore Veracruz. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will drift southeast and dissipate across the NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula through Tue. High pressure will build across the Gulf in the wake of the front. As the high pressure slides eastward, southerly return flow will set-up across the NW Gulf by mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergence of NE trade winds along with divergent flow aloft east of a weak mid/upper level trough over Nicaragua are combining to support a large area of showers and thunderstorms, south of 14N and west of 80W to coastal portions of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Satellite derived winds and surface observations indicated fresh to locally strong trades in the south-central and SW Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring within 60 nm of the Nicaraguan coast. Seas of 4-7 ft are also found in the region. A Gulf of Mexico cold front has moved across NW Cuba and into the NW Caribbean and across the Yucatan Channel to the Yucatan Peninsula to Cozumel. A band of overcast skies and scattered moderate showers prevails within 90 nm south of the front. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil weather conditions, moderate or weaker trades and seas of 1-4 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, the front will drift southward overnight and dissipate on Tue. This will allow moderate to fresh N to NE winds to build behind the front tonight. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist over all but the NW Caribbean through mid week, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia, mainly at night. High pressure building north of the area will slightly enhance trade winds across the Caribbean later in the week. Meanwhile, moderate N to NE swell will continue across the Atlantic waters east of 70W and through the NE Caribbean passages through tonight ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N66W through the central Bahamas to NW coast of Cuba along 81W and across the Yucatan Channel. A pre- frontal trough extends from 28N68W to 20N72W. Scattered moderate convection is found east of the trough to 62W and north of 26N. Scattered weak to moderate convection is seen within 90 nm east of the front to the north of 26N. Recent scatterometer satellite data depicted fresh to strong westerly winds behind the frontal boundary, with the strongest winds occurring north of 29N. Seas of 6-9 ft are found behind the frontal boundary north of 27N. Over the Central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 28N41W to 22N43W and a few clusters of moderate tstorms noted near the northern end of the trough. A strong 1039 mb high pressure center near the Azores and lower pressures over western Africa allow for a moderate pressure gradient, resulting in a large area of fresh to strong anticyclonic winds east of 40W and north of 05N. The strongest winds are occurring east of 30W and north of 14N, including the waters surrounding the Canary Islands. Seas of 8-12 ft are present east of 45W, with the highest seas occurring north of the Cabo Verde Islands. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil weather conditions, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, the previously-mentioned cold front will move quickly SE across the forecast waters, and reach from 31N65W to eastern Cuba by tonight. High pressure will settle across the forecast area in the wake of the front, and dominate the SW N Atlantic through Fri. $$ Stripling