000 AXNT20 KNHC 291714 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Nov 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 09N13W and continues to 07N19W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N19W to 03N33W. A surface trough is along 37W extending from 01N to 08N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 08N and between 30W and 45W. Also, scattered moderate convection is found near the monsoon trough and the coast of Africa, mainly east of 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Bahamas through the Florida Straits where it transitions into a dissipating cold front near 23N83W. The dissipating boundary continues into the Bay of Campeche. Behind this boundary, strong high pressure is building through the Gulf of Mexico resulting in fairly tranquil weather conditions. Recent scatterometer satellite data and surface observations show fresh to occasionally strong N-NE winds behind the frontal boundary, mainly South of 27N. The strongest winds are found offshore Veracruz. Seas of 6-9 ft are present behind the front, with the highest seas occurring offshore Veracruz. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will move southeast and dissipate through late today. High pressure will build across the Gulf in the wake of the front. As high pressure moves eastward, southerly return flow will set-up across the NW Gulf by mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Trade wind convergence along with divergent flow aloft east of a weak mid/upper level trough over Nicaragua are together supporting a large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly within 200 nm of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Satellite derived winds and surface observations indicate fresh to locally strong trades in the south-central and SW Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring within 60 nm of the Nicaraguan coast. Seas of 4-7 ft are also found in the region. Clear skies and light winds over western Cuba allowed for colder than normal temperatures, with some areas reporting temperatures below 50F. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil weather conditions, moderate or weaker trades and seas of 1-4 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist over all but the NW Caribbean through mid week, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia, mainly at night. High pressure building north of the area will slightly enhance trade winds across the Caribbean later in the week. Meanwhile, moderate N to NE swell will continue across the Atlantic waters east of 70W and through the NE Caribbean passages through tonight ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a low pressure center near 36N71W into the Florida Straits, entering the tropical Atlantic near 31N72W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N70W to 23N73W. Scattered moderate convection is found east of the frontal boundary to 65W and north of 27N. Recent scatterometer satellite data depict fresh to strong westerly winds behind the frontal boundary, with the strongest winds occurring north of 29N. Seas of 5-8 ft are found behind the frontal boundary. Over the Central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 28N40W to 23N43W and a few showers are noted near the northern end of the trough. A strong 1038 mb high pressure center near the Azores and lower pressures over western Africa allow for a moderate pressure gradient, resulting in a large area of fresh to strong anticyclonic winds east of 40W and north of 05N. The strongest winds are occurring east of 30W and north of 14N, including the waters surrounding the Canary Islands. Seas of 8-11 ft are present east of 45W, with the highest seas occurring north of the Cabo Verde Islands. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil weather conditions, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, the previously-mentioned cold front will move quickly SE across the forecast waters, and reach from 31N65W to eastern Cuba by tonight. High pressure will settle across the forecast area in the wake of the front, and dominate the SW N Atlantic through Fri. $$ FLYNN/DELGADO