000 AXNT20 KNHC 270557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Nov 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the border areas of the coastal plains of Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 04N27W, 06N43W, and 05N48W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 04N to 06N between 09W and 12W, and from 02N to 05N between 26W and 33W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through south Florida just to the north of Lake Okeechobee, into the central Louisiana, to the Deep south of Texas at the border with Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers are on either side of the front. A surface ridge is to the northwest of the cold front. The ridge extends from a NW Mississippi 1024 mb high pressure center, to an east central Texas 1024 mb high pressure center, to a 1027 mb north central Mexico high pressure center. Moderate to fresh winds are in the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet from the middle Texas Gulf coast into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The maximum sea heights of 10 feet to 11 feet cover the waters that are from Veracruz in Mexico to the Deep South of Texas. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet, elsewhere to the west of the line that runs from the Florida Panhandle to the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends from near Port Charlotte, Florida to off Veracruz, Mexico. The western part of the front will move northward Sat night as low pressure develops along it, off northeast Mexico. The low will move into the south central Gulf by Sun night, then dissipate Mon. The front will weaken as it moves southeast of the basin by late Mon or early Tue, ahead of a stronger front moving into the northern and western Gulf Sun. Looking ahead, the second front will stall from the southeastern Gulf to the south central Gulf by late Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the entire Caribbean Sea, with a 10N ridge. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 15N northward from 72W eastward. A shear line is along 19N58W 17N64W 15N73W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is to the southeast of the shear line. The comparatively highest sea heights are 5 feet in the coastal waters of Puerto Rico. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet, elsewhere. Moderate to fresh winds are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, and in the Windward Passage. Moderate winds are in the central one-third of the area. Moderate winds are to the north of the 19N58W 17N64W shear line. Gentle winds are to the south of the shear line, within 420 nm to the east of 64W. The monsoon trough is along 10N from northern Colombia at 74W, southwestward, beyond the southern sections of Panama. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 180 nm on either side of the monsoon trough. Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with areas of broken low level clouds that are moving with the trade winds, in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. A stationary front that was in the NE Caribbean has dissipated this afternoon. In its wake, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will prevail through the weekend. Moderate N swell will continue to move into Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands and into Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean into Sat. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean Mon night or early Tue, then stall and dissipate. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N45W, to 24N50W, 19N58W. A shear line continues from 19N58W, to 17N64W and to 15N73W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 800 nm to the east and southeast of the stationary front from 15N northward. Isolated moderate is from 10N to 15N between 47W and 60W. Strong winds are from 29N northward from 66W westward. Moderate to fresh winds are from 26N northward from 60W westward. Moderate to fresh winds, or slower, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights are 8 feet or higher, in general, from 20N northward. The sea heights range from 9 feet to 12 feet from 25N northward from 60W eastward. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 9 feet from 20N northward between 60W and 70W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet from the Bahamas northward, and at least 3 feet from the Bahamas southward. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet, in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean, from 20N southward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward from the stationary front eastward. Strong to near-gale force winds are from 26N northward between 20W and 30W. Moderate to fresh winds are from 25N northward from 20W eastward. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. High pressure E of the Bahamas will continue moving E tonight as a cold front moves off the NE Florida coast. By Sat, this front will stretch from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas to near Miami, Florida. The front will then stall Sun and dissipate by Mon. A second cold front will move off NE Florida Sun night, then reach from Bermuda to southeast Florida by late Mon into early Tue, then start to stall from 28N65W to the Florida Straits by Tue night. Meanwhile, northerly swell will continue to move into the waters northeast of the Virgin and Leeward Islands into early next week, then subside. $$ mt/ec