000 AXNT20 KNHC 261718 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Nov 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Sierra Leone near 08N18W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 06N35W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is evident from 03N to 10N between 22W and 43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends into the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Panhandle to 26N92W to near Tampico, Mexico. Buoy and platform observations along with data from a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate fresh to strong winds are following the front over the northwest Gulf, with seas reaching 6 to 8 ft, with the highest seas near Brownsville, Texas. Elsewhere across the Gulf, light to gentle breezes and slight seas are evident. Clouds with possible embedded showers are noted behind the front. The pattern remains fairly dry east of the front with no significant shower or thunderstorm activity noted at this time. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from Port Charlotte, Florida to 24N96W to Veracruz, Mexico by late today. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front over the western Gulf through late today, with near gale- force N winds possible nearshore from Brownsville, Texas, to Tampico, Mexico this morning. The western portion of the front will lift northward Sat as low pressure develops along it over the northwest Gulf by Sat night. The low will move into the south- central Gulf by late Sun, then dissipate. The front will weaken as it moves southeast of the basin by late Mon or early Tue, ahead of a stronger front moving into the northern and western Gulf Sun. Looking ahead, the second front will stall from the southeastern Gulf to the south- central Gulf by late Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the northern Leeward Islands to 18N65W and a weakening stationary front continues south of Hispaniola to 18N75W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are evident between the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands, including the Anegada Passage behind the cold front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are located near the coast of Colombia and south of 11N, east of 78W. Scattered showers are also observed near northeast Honduras. Patches of low level clouds with embedded showers are noted elsewhere. Fresh northerly winds are over the northeast Caribbean, in the wake of the front and near the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are observed elsewhere. Seas of 6 to 7 feet are across the Atlantic passages behind the front and also near the coast of Colombia. 3 to 5 ft seas exist elsewhere with the exception of 1 to 3 ft seas over the far eastern Caribbean, east of 76W and near the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and western Panama. For the forecast, the above mentioned stationary front will dissipate this evening, with fresh NE winds prevailing north of boundary until then. Moderate N swell will continue to move into Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands and into Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean into Sat. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean Mon night or early Tue, then stall and dissipate. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1019 high pressure is centered between northeast Florida and Bermuda near 28N75W. The most recent scatterometer data suggests the presence of a trough extending from 30N77W through the northwest Bahamas. Fresh to strong westerly winds are associated with this trough, mainly north of 29N. Farther east, a cold front reaches from 31N44W to the northern Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are active along the frontal boundary. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are evident on scatterometer data behind the front and between 52W and 58W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft and northwest to north swells follow the front. Another cold front crosses the Canary Islands and continues westward to 27N27W, where it transitions to a stationary front to beyond 31N32W. Strong to near gale force winds are observed in the wake of the front north of 30N. Scattered showers are associated with the front. A weak 1018 high pressure is located between the two aforementioned fronts at 21N35W. Gentle to moderate trade winds are noted between the southern periphery of the high pressure and ITCZ. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Low to medium ash concentration can be found in the vicinity of the Volcano and low elsewhere. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la- palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, the high pressure off northeast Florida will shift east today, ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast tonight. The front will reach from Bermuda to West Palm Beach, Florida by early Sat, then stall and dissipate between 25N and 27N by Sun night. A second front will move off the northeast Florida coast Sat night into early Sun, reach from Bermuda to southeast Florida by late Mon into early Tue, then start to stall from 28N65W to the Florida Straits by Tue night. Meanwhile, northerly swell will continue to move into the waters northeast of the Virgin and Leeward Islands through early next week, then subside. $$ ERA/GR/HVN