000 AXNT20 KNHC 260920 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Nov 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 06N20W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 06N20W to 03N38W to 04N43W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 09N between 20W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front reaches from near Mobile Bay, Alabama to near Barra El Mezquital, Mexico. Buoy and platform observations along with data from an earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicate strong to near-gale force winds are following the front over the northwest Gulf, with seas already reaching 8 ft off the central Texas coast. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas are evident elsewhere across the Gulf. The pattern remains fairly dry, and no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted anywhere across the Gulf at this time. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Port Charlotte, Florida to 24N96W to Veracruz, Mexico by late today. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front over the western Gulf through late today, with near gale- force N winds possible nearshore from Brownsville, Texas, to Tampico, Mexico this morning. The western portion of the front will lift northward Sat as low pressure develops along it over the northwest Gulf by Sat night. The low will move into the south- central Gulf by late Sun, then dissipate along with the front ahead of a stronger front moving into the northern and western Gulf Sun. The second front will move southeast of the basin through late Mon. High pressure will build across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front through Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stalled frontal boundary reaches from the northern Leeward Islands to south of Jamaica. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh NE winds in the lee of Cuba and off northeast Colombia. Gentle to moderate trade winds with 4 to 6 ft seas, except 2 to 4 ft seas over the eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off Colombia and eastern Panama. Showers are active about 180 nm east of Barbados, related to an upper trough moving across the Leeward Islands. No other shower or thunderstorm activity is noted. For the forecast, the stationary front from the northern Leeward Islands to near Jamaica will dissipate by late today, with fresh NE winds prevailing north of the boundary until then. Moderate N swell will continue to move into Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands and into Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean into Sat. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean Mon night or early Tue, then stall and dissipate. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1019 high pressure is centered between northeast Florida and Bermuda near 29.5N73W. Farther east, a cold front reaches from 31N45W to the northern Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active within 60 nm along this boundary from 19N to 22N. Fresh NE winds are noted south of 21N between 60W and 70W, with generally gentle to moderate winds noted elsewhere. Various altimeter satellite passes showed a large area of northerly swell roughly west of the front to about 70W, with significant wave heights reaching 7 to 12 ft. The swell is presenting hazardous marine conditions to the coastal Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Leeward Islands, along with Atlantic passages. Northerly swell in excess of 8 ft is also noted over the eastern Atlantic east of 35w and north of 29N. Moderate seas are noted elsewhere. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, the high pressure off northeast Florida will shift east today, ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast tonight. The front will reach from Bermuda to West Palm Beach, Florida by early Sat, then stall and dissipate between 25N and 27N by Sun night. A second front will move off the northeast Florida coast Sat night into early Sun, reach from Bermuda to southeast Florida by late Mon into early Tue, then start to stall from 28N65W to the Florida Straits by Tue night. Meanwhile, northerly swell will continue to move into the waters northeast of the Virgin and Leeward Islands through early next week, then subside. $$ Christensen