000 AXNT20 KNHC 260601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Nov 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along 08N13W at the coastal plains of Sierra Leone, to 05N18W, to and 04N26W. One surface trough is along 29W/30W from 03N to 10N. A second surface trough is along 40W/41W from 06N southward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 48W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, from 15N southward between 50W and 60W, and from 10N southward from 50W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through southern Georgia, to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. Mostly fresh winds cover the Gulf of Mexico. A small area of strong winds is within 120 nm to the north of NW Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet from 90W eastward, and from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. Fresh S winds are expected in the NW Gulf and fresh E winds in the Florida Straits will prevail ahead of a cold front that will move off the Texas coast Thu evening. By Fri evening, the front will stretch from Fort Myers, Florida, to Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front over the western Gulf Thu night into Fri night with near-gale force winds possible in the nearshore waters between Tampico and Brownsville. Winds will become light to gentle on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the entire Caribbean Sea, with a 10N ridge. A cold front reaches Hispaniola, from the Atlantic Ocean. A stationary front continues, from Hispaniola to 19N80W, and to the SE coastal areas of Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 180 nm on either side of the stationary front. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet from 15N northward from 80W westward, and from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. Strong NE winds are within 125 nm to the north of the stationary front between 81W and 83W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere from 15N northward from 80W westward, and to the northwest of the line 15N80W 11N84W. Moderate wind speeds, or slower, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 10N from northern Colombia at 74W, southwestward, beyond the border areas of Panama and Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm on either side of the monsoon trough. Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with areas of broken low level clouds that are moving with the trade winds, in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. A stationary front extends from western Hispaniola to southern Nicaragua. The front will dissipate gradually through the remainder of the week. Fresh NE winds will prevail behind this front, with some locally strong winds possible S of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will increase over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico through Fri and bring a potential for heavy rain. Moderate northerly swell will affect the NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N Atlantic waters Thu into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N52W to 23N66W, to Hispaniola. The front becomes stationary from Hispaniola southwestward, to Nicaragua. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 630 nm to the east of the cold front from 23N northward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 360 nm to the east and southeast of the rest of the cold front. Fresh to strong winds or faster are to the north and northwest of the cold front, and from 26N northward between 49W and 55W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12 feet to the north and northwest of the cold front. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet in the area that is bounded by the 1007 mb low pressure center, to 22N42W 22N50W 31N50W. northward between 70W and 80W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet from 25N northward between 45W and 70W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward from 40W eastward. A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 31N32W. A surface trough extends from the 1007 mb low pressure center, to 24N33W and 16N36W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 23N northward between the Canary Islands and 35W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet in the area that is bounded by the 1007 mb low pressure center, to 22N42W 22N50W 31N50W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet, elsewhere, in the Atlantic Ocean. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. A cold front extends from 31N52W to the Dominican Republic. The northern portion of this front will move east of the area, while the southern part will stall from 19N to the Mona Passage into the weekend. Fresh NE winds can be expected behind the front, with some strong winds N of 28N through Thu. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build in off the coast of Georgia and northern Florida on Thu. The next cold front will push off the NE Florida coast Fri and bring another round of strong winds into Sat N of 29N. $$ mt/ar