000 AXNT20 KNHC 251658 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Nov 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ is near the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to near the coast of French Guiana 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-08N between 00W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1027 mb high is centered over Georgia/South Carolina with gentle to moderate E winds in the E and central Gulf veering to S winds in the W Gulf this morning. Seas are 3-5 ft across the Gulf and no significant deep convection is occurring. For the forecast, moderate to fresh S winds will prevail in the NW Gulf and fresh E winds in the Florida Straits today. A cold front will move off the Texas coast this afternoon. By Fri evening, the front will stretch from Fort Myers, Florida, to Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front over the western Gulf this evening through Fri. Northerly near-gale force winds will be possible in the nearshore waters between Tampico and Brownsville later tonight into Fri morning. A low pressure will develop in the western Gulf along the front which will bring fresh to locally strong winds across the western and central Gulf on Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands westward to Jamaica, where it transitions to a dissipating stationary front to Honduras. NE Winds are fresh to strong through the Windward Passage and south of central Cuba and Hispaniola, where seas are 5-6 ft. Elsewhere the NE trades are gentle to moderate with seas 2-4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 11N in the SW Caribbean associated with the eastern N Pacific monsoon trough. Elsewhere scattered showers are occurring within 60 NM of the frontal boundary. For the forecast, the front will gradually dissipate through the end of the week. Fresh NE winds will prevail behind the front, with possibly some locally strong winds S of Hispaniola and Cuba as well as in the Windward Passage today. This stalled boundary will bring showers and thunderstorms with a potential for heavy rainfall over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and adjacent waters through Fri. Moderate northerly swell will move across NE Caribbean passages into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N48W southwestward to the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds are SW moderate to fresh ahead of the front north of 25N and are NW to N moderate to strong behind the front. Seas are 8-13 ft behind the front in N swell. Buoy 41049 at 27N63W measured significant wave heights of 13 ft at 1200 UTC with 11 s period out of the NNW. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in association with the front from 20N-24N between 50W-62W as well as 23N-31N between 40W-50W. Farther east, NE to E winds are fresh to strong between 25N-31N east of 25W in association with a broad area of low pressure interacting with a stationary front along 32N. Seas are 8-10 ft. Moderate convection is occuring north of 26N east of 24W. Elsewhere winds are gentle to moderate with seas 4-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will sag SE, but gradually stall Fri along 18N, then dissipate this weekend. Fresh NE winds can be expected along the front, with some strong winds N of 29N through this morning with winds becoming gentle to moderate tonight. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build in off the coast of Georgia and northern Florida today. The next cold front will push off the NE Florida coast Fri and bring another round of strong winds into Sat N of 29N. Moderate northerly swell will move across the tropical N Atlantic into Sat. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Low to medium ash concentration in the vicinity of the volcano. Low elsewhere. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. $$ Landsea/Konarik