000 AXNT20 KNHC 231100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Nov 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move from offshore of Florida toward Bermuda through tonight. Strong to gale-force NW-N winds and seas of 10 to 13 ft will follow the front north of 29N late this morning through this evening. Winds will continue to be fresh to strong through Wednesday near the front with seas 10-13 ft. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 12N15W to 09N21W. The ITCZ extends from 09N21W to 04N30W to 02N40W to 00N49W. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 360 nm either side of the axes between Africa and South America. GULF OF MEXICO... At 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from Naples, Florida to 22N96W, then stationary to Veracruz, Mexico. Isolated showers are along the boundary. High pressure is quickly building in behind the front with strong winds in the northeast Gulf and fresh elsewhere north of the front. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within 180 nm north of the front and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE of the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are expected through this morning in the NE Gulf. High pressure will build north of the area behind the front, maintaining moderate to fresh winds through Wed night. Winds will briefly diminish across the basin Thu ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the coast of Texas by Thu evening. This front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Mexico late Fri before weakening. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front over the far western Gulf Thu night and Fri, with near gale force winds possible in the nearshore waters between Tampico and Brownsville. CARIBBEAN SEA... At 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from Cuba near 22N81W to 19N86W. Isolated moderate showers and tstorms are noted between the front and the Cayman Islands. A westward moving surface trough extends along 75W from 11N-18N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N-18N between 73W-77W. The monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean is inducing scattered moderate to strong convection south of 12.5N between 71W-82W, including over NW Venezuela and N Colombia. Fresh N winds are likely occurring over the NW Caribbean north of the cold front, where seas are likely 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the basin with 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, the front will be reinforced by a second front that will move into the NW Caribbean this afternoon. This front will reach from the Windward Passage to E Honduras on Wed and from the Mona Passage to E Honduras Thu before weakening and dissipating Fri. Behind the front, fresh N to NE winds are expected, with locally strong NE winds possible Thu in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola. The front will enhance showers and tstorms for portions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico late this week. Moderate northerly swell will affect the NE Caribbean passages beginning Thu afternoon and continuing through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on the gale-force wind event expected today over the SW N Atlantic, north of 29N between Bermuda and 75W. At 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N70W to the N coast of Cuba near 23N80W. A second cold front extends from 31N73W to Ft. Lauderdale, Florida to the south-central Gulf of Mexico. A pre- frontal trough east of the first front extends from 31N69W to E Cuba near 21N75.5W. Numerous moderate, with embedded isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms are within 90 nm either side of the pre-frontal trough, north of 22.5N. Strong NW winds are occurring just off of NE Florida behind the second front, where seas are likely 7 to 8 ft. Strong to near-gale force SW winds are occurring east of the first front to 64W, north of 28N, where seas are likely 8 to 10 ft. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 30N40W to 25N49W. A cold front extends from 31N26W to 26N35W. Another surface trough is analyzed ahead of this front from 29N23W to 23N33W. These surface features reside within a broad area of upper-level cyclonic flow, with a large upper-level low centered north of the area. Three pockets of scattered moderate convection are noted, from 25N-31N between 33W-43W, from 25N-31N between 21W-31W, and from 18N-22N between 30W-34W. Generally moderate to fresh winds prevail across this area. A surface ridge axis with light to gentle winds extends from the Canary Islands southwestward to 17N45W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are likely occurring north of 27N between 42W-54W, with seas of 5 to 6 ft farther south, in the tropics. The Cumbre Vieja volcano on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast, the two cold fronts in the west Atlantic will combine by this evening from 31N64W to eastern Cuba. The merged front will reach from 31N59W to the Windward Passage early Wed, and from 31N50W to the Mona Passage early Thu as the southern portion becomes nearly stationary. Strong to near gale force SW winds are occurring E of the initial cold front, mainly N of 28N. Strong to near gale force NW to N winds are developing early this morning behind the reinforcing cold front. A period of NW to N gales is expected N of 29N, to the SW of Bermuda, late this morning through this evening. Swell from this system will extend down to Puerto Rico and the Tropical N Atlantic waters later this week. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build in off the coast of Georgia and northern Florida on Thu. The next cold front is likely to bring fresh winds Fri and Fri night to waters north of 29N. $$ Hagen