000 AXNT20 KNHC 140552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Nov 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W, to 09N20W, to 07N28W, to 05N35W. The ITCZ continues from 05N35W, to 03N41W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 11N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough spans the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate is to the southeast of the line that runs from the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the area. A cold front is inland, from the middle Texas Gulf coast, westward, into parts of northern Mexico. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. Gentle to moderate winds cover the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet. A weak cold front from the Florida Everglades to the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula will stall just SE of the basin tonight. A reinforcing front will cross the Gulf Sat, inducing some strong winds and rough seas over the NW and north central Gulf. This front will stall just SE of the basin Sat night. High pressure will build into the northern Gulf Sun into Mon. This will support fresh winds for the start of next week in parts of the Gulf. The high pressure will then shift east of the region through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 18N northward from 80W westward, associated with the Atlantic Ocean to Yucatan Channel cold front. Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with areas of broken low level clouds that are moving with the trade winds. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from northern Colombia at 74W beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent only with the monsoon trough. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 80W eastward. Fresh to strong winds are within 240 nm to the north of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia between 69W and 73W, and within 135 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 78W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere from 79W eastward. Gentle to moderate winds are in the remainder of the area. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet mostly, with some occasional areas of 3 feet to 5 feet. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds into Sat in the south central Caribbean Sea, and gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. The high pressure will shift east Sat night, ahead of a cold front that will move through the Gulf of Mexico Sun, then stall from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Sun night. Looking ahead, reinforcing high pressure will build north of the area through the middle of next week behind another front moving through the western Atlantic Ocean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N36W, to 26N40W, and 23N59W. A stationary front continues from 23N59W to 22N67W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm on either side of the cold front from 44W eastward. A cold front passes through 31N77W, to just off the coast of SE Florida, into the Straits of Florida, to the Yucatan Channel. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 25N to 29N between 70W and 75W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 420 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward from 67W westward. Upper level SW wind flow is moving on top of the area of the isolated moderate to locally strong precipitation. The upper level SW wind flow is on the eastern side of a large-scale trough that is in the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the waters that are from 20N northward from 30W eastward. A surface trough is along 34W/37W from 15N to 26N. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 14N to 27N between 30W and 40W. Strong to near-gale force winds are from 26N northward between 46W and 57W. Fresh to strong winds elsewhere from the central Atlantic Ocean cold front northward between 46W and 70W. Moderate to fresh winds are from 10N to the central Atlantic Ocean cold front between 53W and 67W, within 420 nm to the west of Africa from 21N to 26N, and from 30N northward from 20W eastward. Moderate or less wind speeds are elsewhere. Sea heights that range from 8 feet to 9 feet are to the north of the central Atlantic Ocean cold front, and from 25N northward between 30W and 40W. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from the Bahamas northward from 70W westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from the Bahamas southward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the area. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. A weak cold front from 31N75W to near Miami, Florida, will continue to drift east into Sat night. Another cold front will move off the NE Florida coast by Sun, then merge with the first front Sun night. The combined front will then stall and weaken Mon from 31N70W to western Cuba. Looking ahead, a third front will move off the NE Florida coast Mon night and eventually overtake the remnants of the previous fronts. This front will then drift SE and eventually stall from near Bermuda to western Cuba through the middle of next week. $$ mt/nr