000 AXNT20 KNHC 131655 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Nov 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 07N22W to 06N35W. The ITCZ continues from 06N35W to 09N44W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present between 02N and 12N and E of 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front continues to move across the Gulf of Mexico, extending from the Big Bend region of Florida to near NW Yucatan to the southern Tamaulipas coast near 22.5N98W. A few showers are seen near the frontal boundary, especially 100 nm E of the coast of Tamaulipas. Dry continental air dominates most of the N and NW Gulf. A recent scatterometer satellite pass and surface observations indicate that fresh to strong N-NW winds are present behind the frontal boundary. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted ahead of the cold front. Seas of 4-7 ft are prevalent behind the front and 2-4 ft ahead of the front. For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas are evident over the northwest Gulf this morning, following a cold front currently extending from the Florida Big Bend area to off the Yucatan Peninsula in the south-central Gulf, then on to near Tampico, Mexico. The front will southeast of the area by late Sun. High pressure building in the wake of the front Sun into Mon will lead to fresh NE winds over the southeast Gulf for the first half of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak stationary front is found from NE Yucatan to W Cuba and into the NW Atlantic off the US Eastern Seaboard. Divergence aloft due to the deep upper level trough over the E US results in widely scattered showers in the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras, affecting the Bay Islands of Honduras, the Cayman Islands and parts of Cuba. The rest of the Caribbean Sea enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Recent scatterometer satellite data show fresh to locally strong trades occurring in the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras, likely associated with the convection in the region. Moderate or weaker winds are present in the remainder of the basin. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail in the SW, central and E Caribbean and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds into tonight over the south-central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. As the high gradually shifts east, a series of weak cold fronts will enter the northwest Caribbean, then stall and dissipate from Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras through mid-week. Some fresh NE winds can be expected behind these fronts. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak stationary front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic to 31N76W to the NW Caribbean. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N72W to 26N77W. Scattered moderate convection is observed on satellite imagery W of 74W and N of 27W. Farther east, a weak surface trough extends from 26N68W to 21N70W and a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the north side of the trough axis. Over the central Atlantic, a cold front enters the basin near 31N34W and continues to 23N47W, where it becomes a dissipating cold front, extending to 22N65W. A pre- frontal trough extends from 30N33W to 19N40W and scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted N of 21N and E of the cold front to 31W. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Recent satellite-derived wind data depict fresh to strong cyclonic winds N of 21N and between 37W to 73W. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. N swell results in 8-14 ft seas N of 21N and between 28W and 62W. Seas of 5-8 ft are found elsewhere in the basin. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast W of 60W, a weak stationary front from 31N76W to the Florida Straits will persist into Sun. Another cold front will move off the NE Florida coast by tonight and merge with the initial front Sun. The combined front will be reinforced by yet another cold front, will stall later Mon from near Bermuda through the SE Bahamas and Cuba into mid-week. $$ DELGADO