000 AXNT20 KNHC 090635 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTION... NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Nov 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...CORRECTION MONSOON TROUGH SECTION... ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 07N11W, to 05N20W, and 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W, from 02N to 03N between 22W and 30W, and from 03N to 04N between 30W and 42W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 15W eastward. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in the coastal plains of Brazil from 02N to 04N between 50W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward, away from the 10N29W-to-08N36W surface trough. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the SE half of Louisiana, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 25N to 28N between 83W and 86W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 90W eastward. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet. A ridge north of the Gulf will continue through Wed night, promoting generally quiet conditions except moderate to fresh NE winds west of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula through Tue. On Thu, southerly return flow in the W Gulf will become moderate to fresh. By Thu night, a weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf and should move quickly across the N waters on Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through 31N61W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 22N70W, across NW Haiti, and to 19N76W in the Windward Passage. A stationary front continues from the Windward Passage, to 16N80W, across Jamaica, to the coastal waters of SE Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong is within 420 nm to the east of the stationary front, from 14N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 60 nm to the north of the stationary front from 16N to 20N. An upper level trough extends from the Florida Keys, to the Yucatan Channel and the Yucatan Peninsula, to Guatemala and the western sections of Nicaragua. The monsoon trough is along 09N to 10N, from northern Colombia at 74W beyond parts of southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is in northern Colombia from 09N to 11N between 73W and 75W. Strong northerly winds are within 60 nm to 75 nm of the coast of Central America from eastern Honduras to SE Nicaragua. Moderate-to-fresh N-to-NE winds are elsewhere to the west of the line that runs from SE Cuba to NW Jamaica, to NE Costa Rica. Gentle or lighter winds are from 16N northward from Jamaica eastward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 80W westward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 20N northward, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. A stationary front extending from Haiti to the SW Caribbean Sea will weaken gradually through Tue. Fresh to strong N winds within 60 NM of the coast of Nicaragua west of the front will persist tonight and diminish Tue. As the Bermuda High rebuilds north of the area, the trades will increase some during the next few days with fresh to strong NE to E trades occurring just north of Colombia and Venezuela, primarily late night and early morning hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N61W, to 22N70W, across NW Haiti, and to 19N76W in the Windward Passage. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 60 nm to 120 nm to the east of the cold front from 26N northward. An upper level trough is along 31N25W 24N30W 19N35W 15N40W. A surface trough is along 31N31W 24N33W 16N34W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong is within 600 nm to the south of the line 28N13W 27N30W 25N31W 25N37W. A second surface trough is along 10N29W 08N36W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 250 nm to the northeast and north of the surface trough. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm to the south of the surface trough. A stationary front is from 32N to 33N between 39W and 45W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N between 36W and 44W. Strong to near-gale force winds are from 29N northward between 58W and 78W, with the cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 300 nm of the coast of Africa from 23N to 30N. Moderate NE winds are from 14N southward between 41W and 56W. Fresh to strong winds are from 08N to 13N between 25W and 38W, near the 10N29W 08N36W surface trough. Gentle or lighter winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 61W eastward. The sea heights range from 10 feet to 14 feet, from the NW Bahamas northward from 74W westward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from the NW Bahamas southward to the Florida Straits. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 13 feet from 26N northward between 66W and 74W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 7 feet elsewhere between 60W and 70W. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet between 30W and 60W. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. A strong extratropical low pressure system north of the area will gradually move eastward for the next few days. This low is producing strong to near gale W to NW winds north of 29N, which will progress eastward and weaken by Tue night for the Atlantic Ocean west of 65W. Very large seas continue north of the Bahamas and will steadily diminish on Tue and Wed. By Wed night, E to SE winds will drop to fresh or weaker, and continue through Fri night. A weak cold front should move across the N waters on Sat. $$ mt/torres