000
AXNT20 KNHC 082200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Nov 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N16W to
08N22W to 08N29W. The ITCZ continues from 08N29W to 07N42W to 
03N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 05N to 15N between 20W and 40W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends over the SW Gulf from 22N93W to the Bay
of Campeche. High pressure prevails elsewhere. Light to gentle 
winds are over the NW Gulf with gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the SE Gulf as well 
as the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, seas of 1-3 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, a ridge north of the Gulf will continue 
through Wed night, promoting generally quiet conditions except 
moderate to fresh NE winds west of Florida today. On Thu, S 
return flow in the W Gulf will become moderate to fresh. By Thu 
night, a weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf and should move 
quickly across the N waters on Fri. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the Windward Passage to 
Nicaragua. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
along the front. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted off the
coast of Nicaragua west of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are
off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range off the coast of
Colombia and 3-6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually weaken 
through Tue. Fresh to strong N winds within 60 NM of the coast of
Nicaragua west of the front will diminish on Tue. As the Bermuda
High rebuilds north of the area, the trades will increase some 
over the next few days with fresh to strong NE to E trades 
occurring just north of Colombia and Venezuela, primarily late 
night and early morning hours. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N62W to the Windward Passage. Strong
to near gale winds are noted north of 29N west of the front to
72W. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere N of 29N and west of
72W. Fresh tor strong winds are also within 60 nm east of the
front north of 28N. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere east 
of the front. Seas of 10-14 ft prevail north of 28N between 66W 
and 76W. Seas of 7-10 ft are elsewhere over the open waters west 
of the front. Farther east, high pressure prevails. Gentle to 
moderate winds are elsewhere east of the front, with seas in the
4-6 ft range. South of 20N, moderate to locally fresh winds, and
seas of 3-6 ft prevail. 

For the forecast west of 65W, a strong extratropical low 
pressure system north of the area will gradually move eastward 
for the next few days. This low is producing strong to near gale 
W to NW winds north of 28N, which will progress eastward and 
weaken by Tue night for our waters west of 65W. Very large seas 
continue north of the Bahamas today and will steadily diminish on
Tue and Wed. By Wed night, SE to E winds will drop to fresh or 
or weaker over our waters and continue through Fri night. A weak 
cold front should move across the N waters on Sat. 

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the 
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. 
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing 
situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by 
Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
AL