000 AXNT20 KNHC 081037 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Nov 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... West Atlantic Gale Warning: A storm force low is centered north of the area near 33N71W. A recent ASCAT pass from Sunday evening shows that gale force W to NW winds up to 35 kt are occurring from 30N-31N between 72W-76W. Seas in this area are likely 15 to 20 ft. Buoy 41002 just north of the area near 31.8N 75W recently recorded seas of 23 ft at 0400 UTC. As the low moves toward the E or ENE at a forward speed of 10-15 kt over the next couple of days, winds and seas should begin to subside starting later this morning, but frequent gusts to gale force along with seas of 12 to 15 ft will persist through this afternoon north of 29N between 70W-75W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends S from the coast of Senegal near 12N16W to 09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to 05N29W to 03N43W. The ITCZ resumes W of a surface trough from 03N47W to 03N50W. A surface trough is analyzed from 02N46W to 08N41W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N-11N between 16W-30W, and from 04N to 07N between 32W to 39W. Scattered moderate convection is near the northeastern end of the surface trough. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico, with a 1025 mb surface high pressure centered over southwestern Mississippi. A recent ASCAT wind data pass reveals gentle E winds over the NW Gulf north of 23N and west of 90W. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are evident over the eastern Gulf. A small surface trough is present west of the Yucatan Peninsula. ASCAT shows moderate to fresh NE winds on the NE side of the trough, off the NW coast of Yucatan. Seas are 1 to 3 ft over the NW Gulf and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through midweek. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds across the eastern Gulf will continue through Mon night. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through midweek. Southerly flow returns Wed increasing winds moderate to fresh in the NW Gulf. This is ahead of the next cold front that will move into the region by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front over the western Atlantic crosses the eastern tip of Cuba into the western Caribbean as a stationary front to 12N83W, near the coast of Nicaragua. Scattered tstorms are along the front. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh N winds behind the front covering the NW Caribbean, except for locally strong N winds off the coast of Honduras, from 15N to 18.5N between 81W-86W. Seas of 6 to 7 ft are occurring in the strong wind area, with 3 to 6 ft seas elsewhere behind the front. Fresh to locally strong trades are also seen off the coast of NE Colombia and NW Venezuela, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate trades are noted elsewhere with 2 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds follow the Front in the western Caribbean. The front will gradually drift eastward through Tue while dissipating. Fresh to strong north winds will remain within 60 nm of the coast of Nicaragua, in the wake of the front, Mon through Tue. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the east and central Caribbean through mid-week, except of moderate to fresh trade winds near the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. High pressure builds north of the area and migrates eastward across the western Atlantic strengthening the trade winds across the basin late in the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for more information on the Gale Warning north of 30N between 70W-76W. A cold front extends from 31N66W to 20N74W near the eastern tip of Cuba. Isolated moderate showers and tstorms are found within 120 nm ahead of the front. A second/reinforcing front has formed from 31N69W to 26N78W near Grand Bahama Island. Gale force W to NW winds are north of 29N and west of the reinforcing front to 76W. Strong NW to N winds are elsewhere to the NW of the reinforcing front, extending to the coast of Florida. Strong to near-gale force SW winds are within 90 nm east of the reinforcing front, north of 28N. Fresh S to SW winds are within 120 nm east of the leading front, north of 23N. Observations near the low pressure indicate seas in excess of 8 ft are occurring north of 25N and west of 65W, with a maximum of 20 ft near 32N73W. Farther E, an upper-level low near 24N36W is inducing scattered moderate tstorms from 19N-27N between 30W-38W. A 1020 mb surface high pressure near 31N40W sits along a ridge that extends southwestward to the Dominican Republic. Gentle winds are near the ridge. Moderate trade winds prevail in the tropical latitudes, south of the ridge. Seas are 3 to 5 ft from 15N-30N between 35W-60W, 5 to 7 ft from 05N-15N between 40W-60W, and 6 to 8 ft north of 15N and east of 30W. For the forecast west of 65W, the two cold fronts will continue progressing eastward as the low pressure north of the area moves E to ENE at 10-15 kt over the next couple days. Winds and seas west of 75W will begin to diminish late today. In the wake of this system, high pressure will build over the Carolinas Wed, leading to moderate to fresh trade winds over the W Atlantic. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. $$ Torres