000 AXNT20 KNHC 061809 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Nov 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 37.0N 38.2W at 06/1500 UTC or 535 nm W of the Azores and moving S at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the center in a NE semicircle and 30 nm in a SW semicircle. A sharp turn toward the northeast is forecast later this afternoon with increasing speed tonight, and this general motion will continue through Mon. A slight increase in strength is expected through Sun afternoon before the extra-tropical transition afterward. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. West Atlantic Storm Warning: As of 06/1500 UTC a 1006 mb low pressure is located in the Atlantic about 80 nm SE of Jacksonville Florida near 29N80W. A warm front extends east-northeastward from the low to beyond 31N78W. A cold front curves southwestward from this low across the Florida Keys and W Cuba. Recent satellite scatterometer and buoy data reveal gale to storm force winds near and N of the low and warm front, N of 29N between 74W and the N Florida-Georgia-S Carolina coast. Ship observations in the area report seas from 10 to 14 ft. This low will continue to deepen with gale to storm force winds persisting through tonight, which will cause seas to peak between 16 and 19 ft. As this low pulls ENE on Sun, storm force winds W of 77W should decrease to gale force and will persist through Sun night. Seas will also gradually subside starting Sun afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: ASCAT data from around 06/1400 UTC show gale-force NNE winds across the offshore waters near Agadir N of 30N between the Moroccan coast and 12W. Meteo-France is forecasting gale force winds to continue in this area through at least 07/1200 UTC. Seas will be 9 to 11 ft in the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough ends just off the Senegal coast near 14N18W with no significant weather. An ITCZ extends westward from 06N15W to 07N55W, just N of Suriname. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the ITCZ from 04N to 09N between 15W and 45W, and farther W along N coast of Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana and adjacent Atlantic waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface troughing is causing scattered showers over the central and SW corner of the Gulf. Tighter gradient between a strong low pressure off the NE Florida coast and a high over the Tennessee-Kentucky border is sustaining fresh to strong NNW to N winds with seas at 7 to 9 ft across the NE Gulf. Moderate to fresh N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present across the central and SE Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate N to NNE winds with seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail for the W Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, high pressure currently just N of the Gulf coast states will build southward over the Gulf waters as the cold front near the Florida Atlantic coast continues to push eastward. Winds and seas will continue to diminish across the E Gulf today. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected across the E Gulf through Mon while mainly gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front curves southwestward from near central Cuba to the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 100 nm SE of the front. Farther SE, a surface trough is causing similar conditions from E Cuba southwestward across Jamaica and the SW Caribbean Basin to the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh N winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found behind the cold front over the NW basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E trades and seas of 5 to 6 ft are evident over the central basin. NE to E trades and seas at 3 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas building to 8 ft in the Yucatan Channel will follow the front and reach from central Cuba southwestward to the Honduras-Nicaragua border later tonight, and then from the Windward Passage to southern Nicaragua by Sun. These conditions will continue to spread across the NW Caribbean through early next week behind the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast off the Nicaragua coast Mon through Tue after the frontal passage. High pressure over the Atlantic continues to support moderate to locally fresh winds over the eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for more information on the Storm Warning off the Georgia-NE Florida coast and on the Gale Warning offshore of Morocco. As of 06/1500 UTC a 1006 mb low pressure is located in the Atlantic about 80 nm SE of Jacksonville Florida near 29N80W. A warm front extends east-northeastward from the low to beyond 31N78W. A cold front curves southwestward from this low across the Florida Keys and W Cuba. Moderate rain with embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near the low and warm front N of 29N between 75W and the Georgia-NE Florida coast. Convergent southerly winds farther E of the cold front, and S of the warm front are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Bahamas northeastward to SW of Bermuda. Farther E over the central Atlantic, a mid to upper-level low SW of the Azores near 31N35W is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 22N between 28W and 42W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the basin. Fresh to strong ESE to SE winds and seas of 10 to 12 ft are present N of 27N between 69W and 74W; fresh to strong NE trades and seas at 8 to 10 ft are noted near the Canary Islands N of 27N between the NW African coast and 16W. Farther S from 20N to 27N, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are seen between 68W and the Bahamas, moderate to fresh NE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present between the Western Sahara-Mauritania coast and 16W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft dominate N of 20N between 16W and 68W. Gentle to moderate ENE to NE trades and seas near 4 ft exist from 07N to 20N between the central African coast and the Lesser Antilles/S American coast. Gentle ESE to SE trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 65W, the low off the NE Florida coast is expected to move N of the forecast area by tonight with the cold front from 31N77W to central Cuba, and from near Bermuda to E Cuba by Sun night. Frequent gusts to storm force, are expected to continue across the waters N of 29N and W of 80W through tonight, with gale-force winds persisting N of 28N, W of 77W through Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds with gusts to gale force will continue N of 27N between 65W and 77W through Tue. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. $$ Chan