000 AXNT20 KNHC 051653 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Nov 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 40.6N 37.8W at 05/1500 UTC or 530 nm WNW of the Azores moving SSE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 38N-42N between 37W-41W. A southward motion is expected this afternoon through Saturday, and a turn toward the northeast is expected Saturday night or Sunday. Little change in strength is expected today and tonight, while slight strengthening is possible on Saturday. Wanda is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a few days. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Gale Warnings: As of 1500 UTC, a 1009 mb low pressure is centered near 27N85W in the NE Gulf. A stationary front extends east-northeastward from the low across the Florida peninsula to 31N73W, while a cold front extends southwestward to Yucatan. Strongest observed winds over the Gulf are NE 31 kt at elevated platform SGOF1 in the NE Gulf, though gale for N to NE winds are likely occuring now over portions of the NE Gulf. Peak observed winds in the NW Atlantic are NE around 35 kt from scatterometer near 29N80W just east of NE Florida. Peak seas are near 8 ft in the central Gulf and near 10 ft just east of NE Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 24N and east of 88W in the Gulf, while scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed north of 23N west of 66W in the Atlantic. The low pressure will lift east- northeastward into central Florida by this evening and then off the NE Florida coast on Sat. Gale force winds are expected in the Gulf on the west side of the low center through early Sat morning. Seas should peak around 13 ft tonight in the NE Gulf of Mexico. Seas should peak around 17 ft tonight and tomorrow morning over the Atlantic just east of NE Florida. Winds and seas will diminish over the E Gulf later on Sat through Sun as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Gale force winds will continue off the NE Florida coast through Sat night as the low lifts north of the area by early Sun. Gusts to gale force are expected N of 27N and W of 70W Sat through Sun night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Near gale force N to NE winds are currently occurring off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir, according to the ASCAT wind data from overnight. Winds are forecast to increase to gale force by 05/1500 UTC and persist through at least 06/1200 UTC, according to the forecast from Meteo-France. Expect gale force winds from 30N to 31N, and within 120 nm of the coast of Morocco with peak seas around possibly 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 14N22W. Farther SW, the ITCZ stretches from 03N22W to 06N34W to 05N47W. No significant convection is noted along the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and near the ITCZ from 01N to 09N between 29W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for more information about the gale warning for the NE Gulf. As of 1500 UTC, a 1009 mb low pressure is centered near 27N85W in the NE Gulf. A stationary front extends east-northeastward from the low across the Florida peninsula, while a cold front extends southwestward to Yucatan. The associated cold front will move across the SE Gulf today, reaching the NW Caribbean this evening. Winds and seas will diminish over the eastern Gulf later on Sat through Sun as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gale-force low over the Gulf of Mexico and associated stationary front just north of the Bahamas is weakening the N-S pressure gradient across the Caribbean. E trades of only gentle to moderate are occurring over the central and E Caribbean, with light to gentle winds in the W Caribbean. Seas are 3-4 ft over the central and E Caribbean and 1-2 ft elsewhere. A pre-frontal surface trough is present from 22N84W to 16N85W with scattered moderate convection present from 11N-19N between 80W-84W. For the forecast, high pressure over the Atlantic will continue to support moderate to locally fresh winds over the eastern and central Caribbean. Fresh N winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving through the Yucatan Channel by this evening. The front will reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Sat morning, from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by Sat evening, and from eastern Cuba to the coast of Nicaragua on Sun. The front could reach Hispaniola on Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast off the Nicaragua coast on Mon after the frontal passage. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for more details about the gale warning east of NE Florida for tonight and Sat and about the gale warning offshore of Morocco. As of 0900 UTC, a stationary front extends from the Florida peninsula near 28N81W to 31N73W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 25N75W to 31N70W. Elsewhere, an extratropical low near 37N65W and Tropical Storm Wanda near 41N38W has weakened the pressure gradient over the tropical N Atlantic, with NE to E trades only moderate to fresh. Seas are 3-6 ft across the basin. The trailing cold front will stretch from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sun night. Strong winds and building seas will follow the front. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Low ash concentration currently. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. $$ Landsea