000 AXNT20 KNHC 050510 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Nov 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 42.3N 38.7W at 05/0300 UTC or 595 nm WNW of the Azores moving E at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 40N to 46N between 37W and 42W. A turn to the SE is expected later today, followed by a southward motion on Sat. Little change in intensity is forecast through tonight before some slight strengthening on Sat. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Gale Warnings: A 1012 mb low pressure has formed over the southern Gulf, just south of a frontal boundary. The low is expected to merge with the front early this morning. The low will then track ENE across the Gulf into north-central Florida tonight. A tightening pressure gradient between this low and a ridge of high pressure behind the front over the SE U.S. will cause strong to gale force winds across the NE Gulf this afternoon through tonight, where seas will build up to 12 ft. As the low moves across N Florida toward the Atlantic late tonight and Sat morning, these strong to gale winds will shift northeastward into the Atlantic offshore waters of N Florida. Seas will build to 16 ft east of northern Florida on Sat. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Near gale force N to NE winds are currently occurring off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir, according to the latest ASCAT wind data. Winds are forecast to increase to gale force by 05/1500 UTC and persist through at least 06/0000 UTC, according to the forecast from Meteo-France. Expect gale force winds from 30N to 31N, and within 120 nm of the coast of Morocco with seas possibly exceeding 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 14N22W. Farther SW, the ITCZ stretches from 03N22W to 06N39W to 05N47W. No significant convection is noted along the monsoon trough or ITCZ, although scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-08N between 47W-51W in association with a surface trough that stretches from 10N49W to 02N47W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for more information about the gale warning for the NE Gulf. As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from Sarasota Florida to 26N87W to Veracruz Mexico. A 1012 mb low pressure is near 25N87W, just south of the front, but this low is expected to merge with the front this morning, before moving east-northeastward and strengthening. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms prevail along and south of the front from 23N-27N between South Florida and 89W. Scattered moderate showers cover the NE Gulf of Mexico, north of the front, mainly east of 90W. The latest ASCAT wind data shows fresh to strong N or NE winds covering the Gulf of Mexico north of the front, while gentle to moderate winds prevail ahead of the front, over the far SE and south-central Gulf. Seas are likely currently 5 to 8 ft over portions of the central and west-central Gulf of Mexico. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft over portions of the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico later today. Buoy 42003 near 25.9N 85.6W is reporting NE winds 19 kt gusting to 23 kt and seas of 6 ft at 0400 UTC. Farther west, buoy 42002 near 26.1N 93.6W is reporting NNE winds 19 kt gusting to 23 kt and seas of 7 ft at 0400 UTC. For the forecast, the low near 25N87W will merge with front this morning, then move to the northeast into central Florida by this evening. The front will follow, moving southeast of the Gulf by late Sat. Strong to gale force winds are expected over the northeast Gulf by this afternoon and continuing into this evening when the low moves inland. Winds and seas will diminish over the eastern Gulf Sat through early next week as high pressure builds north of the area following the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level anticyclone prevails over the Caribbean, but some scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen in the western half of the basin, mainly west of 78W. Only isolated showers and tstorms, with drier conditions are located farther east. Recent ASCAT wind data shows mainly moderate trade winds across the basin, with gentle winds over portions of the NW and SW Caribbean. Seas are 3 to 4 feet over the open waters of the eastern and central Caribbean, and 1 to 3 ft in the western portion of the basin. For the forecast, fresh N winds and building seas will follow a cold front forecast to move through the Yucatan Channel tonight. The front will reach from central Cuba to eastern Honduras Sat night, and from eastern Cuba to the coast of Nicaragua by late Sun. The front start to stall by Mon as it drifts eastward into the Windward Passage. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for more details about the gale warning east of northern Florida for tonight and Sat and about the gale warning offshore of Morocco. As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from near 31N75W to the central Florida peninsula. Scattered moderate showers are north of 24.5N and west of 70W, including the NW Bahamas and Florida Peninsula. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong N winds north of the cold front with gentle winds ahead of the front. Seas to 9 ft currently behind the front will build to 12 ft by midday east of northern Florida and to 16 ft tonight north of 29N. In the E Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N31W to 20N37W. Scattered moderate tstorms are noted along and within 180 nm E of the trough, mainly north of 26N. Fresh SE to S winds are north of 30N within 180 nm east of the trough axis. A cold front extends from the coast of Western Sahara near 27N13W through the western Canary Islands to 31N22W. Fresh NE winds are north of the front, except strong to near gale force near the coast of Morocco. Seas of 4 to 6 ft generally prevail across the remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean, except for the higher areas off NE Florida and off Morocco and Western Sahara. For the forecast west of 65W, low pressure will move northward along the cold front tonight into Sat off the northeast Florida coast. This will bring gale force winds in the offshore waters N of 29N and west of 77W late tonight through late Sat. The low pressure will lift N of 31N Sun through Mon, with the trailing front reaching from near Bermuda to central Cuba by Mon night. Strong winds will follow the front N of the Bahamas through early Tue. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. $$ Hagen