000 AXNT20 KNHC 041757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Nov 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 41.9N 39.6W at 04/01500 UTC or 625 nm WNW of the Azores and moving N at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found within 120 nm in the NW semicircle and within 70 nm in the SE semicircle. A gradual turn toward the NE and then E is expected through tonight, then follow by SE to S with increasing speed on Fri. Little change in intensity is forecast through Fri afternoon before some slight strengthening Fri night and Sat. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Gale Warnings: a low pressure has developed along a frontal boundary over the W central Gulf. As this low tracks ENE across the Gulf into N Florida through Friday night, a mid to upper-level trough in the vicinity will strengthen this low. Tightening pressure gradient between this low and a ridge of high pressure behind the front over the SE U.S. will cause strong to gale winds across the NE Gulf Fri night. As the low moves across N Florida toward the Atlantic late Fri night and Sat morning, these strong to gale winds should shift northeastward into the offshore waters of N Florida, Georgia and S Carolina. For more detail information, please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://nhc.noaa.gov/marine/ ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A weak monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Senegal- Mauritania border at 16N16W to just E of the Cabo Verde Islands at 15N20W. Farther SW, an ITCZ stretches from 03N20W to 05N44W, N of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of the monsoon trough over Guinea-Bissau. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near the ITCZ from 02N to 09N between 22W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for more information about the gale warning for the NE Gulf by Fri night. A cold front curves eastward from N Mexico to a 1015 mb low pressure SE of Brownsville, Texas near 25N96W; then continues east-northeastward as a stationary front across the N central Gulf to N Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near the low over the W central and NW Gulf. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near and up to 100 nm S of the stationary front. A surface trough over W Cuba is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Florida Keys and Straits. Latest satellite scatterometer data and buoy observations reveal moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NNW winds over the W central and NW Gulf with seas at 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds are present across the N central and NE Gulf with seas at 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will move from the NW Gulf into the SW Gulf through early Fri. Low pressure along the front will move toward the ENE into central and N Florida through late Fri. The front will follow, and move over the SE Gulf by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds are possible over the NE Gulf by late Fri as the low moves inland, with frequent gusts to gale force possible. Winds and seas will diminish over the W Gulf Sat through early next week as high pressure builds north of the area following the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Modest surface troughing over the Bay of Honduras and E coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, as well as over W Cuba and nearby Caribbean waters are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Convergent trades are causing similar conditions over E Dominican Republic. Mainly gentle E trades with seas at 2 to 3 ft are evident across the W basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to E trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail across the rest of the basin. For the forecast, a trough over the NW Caribbean is weakening, allowing winds and seas to diminish. High pressure over the Atlantic is supporting moderate winds and seas over the E and central Caribbean. Fresh N winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving through the Yucatan Channel Fri night. The front will reach from central Cuba to E Honduras Sat night, and from E Cuba to the coast of Nicaragua by late Sun. The front starts to stall by Mon as it drifts eastward into the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for more information about the gale warning for Fri night and Sat. A stationary front reaches east-northeast from near Jacksonville, Florida to beyond 31N at 76W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present near and up to 120 nm S of this front. Over the E central Atlantic, a surface trough extends north- northeastward from 20N37W to beyond 31N at 31W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 80 nm along both sides of this trough. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the basin. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds with seas at 7 to 9 ft are found N of the stationary front to beyond 31N between 77W and the N Florida- Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate W to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist S of this front to 28N between 77W and the central Florida coast. Moderate to fresh SE to SW winds with seas of 5 to 7 ft are evident near the surface trough N of 27N between 26W and 32W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft are noted N of 20N between the African coast and the Bahamas. Light to gentle with locally moderate NE to SE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, a mostly stationary front extends across the coastal waters off NE Florida. Low pressure will move northward along the front Fri night into Sat, supporting winds to gale force in the offshore waters of NE Florida through late Sat. The low pressure will lift to the NE through Mon, with the trailing front reaching from near Bermuda to central Cuba by Mon night. $$ Chan