000 AXNT20 KNHC 041058 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Nov 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 41.5N 39.5W at 04/0900 UTC or 610 nm WNW of the Azores moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found within 150 nm in the western semicircle and within 60 nm in the southeast semicircle. Wanda may low then turn to the east over the next through Fri, then accelerate to the northeast. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two as well. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Gale Warnings: Low pressure will develop through tonight over the central Gulf, ahead of a cold front moving slowly through the northern Gulf. The low pressure will merge with the front as a mid/upper level trough moves across the Gulf. The low will then deepen and move to the northeast Thu through Fri. As the low intensifies, the gradient will tighten enough to support near-gale force winds over the northeast Gulf of Mexico Fri night. The Gulf waters are still warm enough to allow efficient mixing of stronger winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere to the surface. Therefore, frequent gusts to gale force are possible Fri night in the offshore waters in the northeast Gulf. This pattern may also bring frequents gusts to gale force to the Atlantic waters off northeast Florida as the low moves rapidly across northern Florida Fri night. There is a more certainty of sustained winds to gale force off northeast Florida through Sat. Winds and seas will diminish Sat night and Sun across the region as the low continues to move northeast of the area. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the Senegal/Mauritania border near 16N16W to 05N20W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N20W to 04N39W and then continues from 02N42W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 35W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information about the gale warning for Fri night. A mid/upper level trough is moving across coastal Texas, interacting with a mostly stationary frontal boundary reaching across the northern Gulf. This pattern is inducing the western portion of the front to move southward over Texas coastal waters as a cold front. Recent buoy and platform data indicate fresh to locally strong N flow within 60 nm of the Texas coast. Of note, buoy 42020 off the coast of South Texas is reporting seas to 9 ft. Seas are likely 4 to 6 ft elsewhere over Texas coastal waters within 60 nm of the coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off the Texas coast related and ahead of the mid/upper trough. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are active over the northeast Gulf, north of 25N and east of 87W, supported by upper jet dynamics over that region. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted across the remainder of the Gulf. For the forecast, the western portion of the front will move into the southwestern Gulf through early Fri. Low pressure will develop ahead of the front over the south-central Gulf by early Thu, then move to the northeast into central Florida through late Fri. the front will follow, and move southeast of the Gulf by late Sat. Strong to near gale force winds are possible over the northeast Gulf by late Fri as the low moves inland, with frequent gusts to gale force possible. Winds and seas will diminish over the western Gulf Sat through early next week as high pressure builds north of the area following the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak troughing persists over the northwest Caribbean, mainly from western Cuba across the Isle of Youth to 18N82W. A few showers are active south of central Cuba near the trough, and off Colombia, but elsewhere no significant convection is evident. A relatively weak pressure pattern continues, with gentle to moderate E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident across the Caribbean at this time. For the forecast, fresh N winds and building seas will follow a a cold front moving through the Yucatan Channel Fri night. The front will reach from central Cuba to eastern Honduras Sat night, and from eastern Cuba to the coast of Nicaragua by late Sun. The front start to stall by Mon as it drifts eastward into the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for more information about the gale warning for Fri night and Sat. A stationary front reaches from 31N79W through Jacksonville, Florida. Moderate to fresh NE winds are possible off the Florida coast west of the front. Farther east, weak ridging extends from 1017 mb high pressure near 23N41W to 30N70W, maintaining gentle to moderate NE to E winds west of 50W. An upper trough along 35W is supporting scattered convection from 06N to 08N between 35W and 45W along the ITCZ. A few showers are active along an associated surface trough reaching from 31N31W to 18N39W. Fresh S winds and 5 to 7 ft are also evident with 120 nm to the east of this trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted off the northwest African coast. Moderate trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident elsewhere. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, as described in the Special Features section, low pressure will move northward along the front Fri night into Sat, supporting winds to gale force in the offshore waters of northeast Florida through late Sat. The low pressure will lift to the northeast through Mon, with the trailing front reaching from near Bermuda to central Cuba by Mon night. $$ Christensen