000 AXNT20 KNHC 031809 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Nov 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 38.8N 39.8W at 03/1500 UTC or 605 nm W of the Azores and moving NNE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 90 nm N and NE, and up to 50 nm SW of the center. This general motion should continue through Thu before turning SE and slowing down Thu night. Little change in intensity is forecast during the next couple of days. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. Locally Heavy Rainfall expected across Costa Rica and Panama: A developing area of low pressure located about 105 nm W of Costa Rica near 8.5N 86.1W is expected to enhance the monsoon trough across Costa Rica and Panama through Friday morning. This will increase the chance of heavy rain across these nations, especially near the SW and S coast which could result in local flooding and mudslides. As this low moves further W into the the E Pacific starting Fri, its influence on the monsoon trough will decrease. Please consult products from your local meteorological offices for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A weak monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the Senegal coast near 15N17W to 10N21W. No significant convection is seen near the monsoon trough. Farther SW, the ITCZ extends westward from 04N25W to 05N35W, then from 03N37W to 02N42W N of Brazil. A 1012 mb low pressure system is located between these two ITCZ near 05N36W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed near the low and ITCZ 02N to 08N between 25W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A modest stationary front extends eastward from near Galveston, Texas passing S of New Orleans to the Big Bend area of Florida. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are found near this feature with no significant weather. A surface trough over the E central Gulf is triggering scattered showers from 25N to 26N between 84W and 86W. The N portion of another surface trough is producing similar conditions across the Florida Keys and Straits of Florida. A 1020 mb high centering near the E coast of central Mexico dominates much of the Gulf with light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft. For the forecast, weak high pressure over the N Gulf will shift E today ahead of a cold front entering the northwest Gulf tonight. Fresh winds will follow the front through Thu as it reaches from the Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico by late Thu. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop over the SE Gulf ahead of the front by late Thu. The low will deepen by late Fri as it moves into the NE Gulf, with the front extending from the low to the SW Gulf near Veracruz, Mexico. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible over the NE Gulf by Fri night as the low moves onshore over N Florida. Winds and seas will diminish over the W Gulf Sat as the front moves SE of the area. High pressure will build N of the area Sun following the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section for information on potential heavy rain across Costa Rica and Panama. A robust surface trough in the Gulf of Honduras is coupling with divergent winds aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NW basin, including the E coast of Belize and N coast of Honduras. This activity is forecast to spread inland into S Belize, N Honduras and E Guatemala Thu and Fri. Heavy downpours from strong thunderstorms will increase the chance of local flooding in rivers and valleys. Moderate to local fresh NE winds with seas at 4 to 5 ft are found over the W Gulf of Honduras. Please consult products from your local meteorological offices for more details. Another surface trough over the Cayman Islands and W Cuba is producing scattered showers isolated thunderstorms across the nearby Caribbean waters. An upper-level low just NW of Puerto Rico near 20N68W is causing similar conditions across W Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and nearby waters. Mostly moderate trades and seas at 4 to 5 ft are present over the central Caribbean Basin. Light to gentle trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds over the W Gulf of Honduras will diminish through early afternoon. A weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate trade winds across the central and eastern basin into Sat. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean by early Sat, then follow by moderate to fresh N winds. The front will reach from E Cuba to E Honduras by late Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough runs southwestward from W of Bermuda across 31N72W to N of the central Bahamas at 27N74W. Scattered showers are noted near and SE of this feature N of 24N between 61W and 75W. Convergent southerly winds are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms well NW of the Cabo Verde Islands N of 22N between 29W and 34W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the basin. Larger N to NW swell produced by Tropical Storm Wanda over the N Atlantic is generating seas of 6 to 9 ft N of 26N between 30W and 57W. Otherwise, light to gentle with local moderate winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft dominate N of 20N between the NW African coast and the Georgia-Florida coast. Gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft are seen from 10N to 20N between the central African coast and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate E to SE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure N of the area will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds through today. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will follow a cold front moving into the waters off NE Florida Thu night. A low will develop along the front by Fri evening and strong to near gale force are anticipated to develop over the waters off NE Florida through Sat. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible Fri night off NE Florida. The cold front will extend from Bermuda to E Cuba by Sun night. $$ Chan