000 AXNT20 KNHC 030524 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Nov 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0505 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 37.3N 40.3W at 03/0300 UTC or 635 nm W of the Azores moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Wanda is producing scattered moderate convection within 150 nm of the center. Little change in intensity is forecast during the next couple of days. A northward to north- northeastward motion should continue through early Thursday. An eastward motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated by late Thursday, followed by a faster southeastward motion by Thursday night. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. Locally Heavy Rainfall expected across portions of Central America: An area of low pressure located about 100 nm W of Costa Rica is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storm activity is affecting the Pacific coast of Costa Rica, which could result in flooding and mudslides. The system is forecast to move further into the the eastern Pacific basin over the next couple of days. In addition, a surface trough in the Gulf of Honduras is forecast to support rainfall in parts of Honduras, Guatemala and Belize through early Friday. A moist and unstable atmosphere is already in place over most of Central America along with moist monsoonal flow south of the monsoon trough. All these ingredients are supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, eastern Nicaragua and some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. Please consult products from your local meteorological offices for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the Senegal border near 15N17W to 08N23W. The ITCZ then continues from 08N23W to 04N36W to the coast of NE Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 08N between 25W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from near the mouth of the Mississippi River near 29N89W to SW Louisiana. Also, a surface trough extends from the western coast of Florida near 27N83W to central Cuba. However, the Gulf of Mexico remains under a prominent continental dry airmass that continues to suppress the development of any significant convection. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and seas in the 1-3 ft range prevail across the Gulf. For the forecast, gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the basin will increase to moderate to fresh over the northern half of the gulf by Thu morning between a front expected to move into the northern Gulf coastal waters by Wed night and a surface trough that will develop over the southeast and south-central Gulf. The surface trough will shift NE and become a low along the cold front on Fri afternoon. Strong to near gale force winds will develop over the northeast Gulf Fri as the low deepens, with frequent gusts to gale force possible by late Fri. Winds and seas will diminish over most of the region Sat into Sun as the low lifts northeast of the area, and the front moves to the southeast of the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details on the heavy rainfall event affecting Central America. A surface trough, the remnants of a shear line, extends from E Cuba to N Honduras and it is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 60 nm of the trough axis. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate fresh to locally strong northerly winds within 200 nm N of the trough axis, especially in the Gulf of Honduras. Farther east, an upper level low over Hispaniola is inducing shallow showers N of 14N and between 64W and 70W, affecting Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The rest of the Caribbean enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate or weaker winds are prevalent in the central, SW and E Caribbean. Seas of 3-5 ft are occurring in the basin, with the highest seas being present in the NW and SW Caribbean. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the central and eastern basin into Sat. A cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean by early Sat, followed by moderate to fresh N winds. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by late Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough, the remnant of a dissipating stationary front, extends from 25N56W to the SE Bahamas and E Cuba, producing shallow showers near the trough axis. Another weak surface trough extends from 31N33W to 19N52W and it is also generating shallow showers near the trough axis. A 1012 mb low pressure near 18N36W and surface trough extending from 24N34W to 15N39W continue to produce scattered moderate to isolated strong convection to the E of the trough axis, mainly within 250 nm. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict fresh to strong southerly winds to the E of the trough axis. The rest of the tropical Atlantic enjoys fairly tranquil conditions with moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds. Seas of 3-6 ft are found W of 60W. Seas in the 5-8 ft range are present E of 60W and N of 20N and 4-7 ft S of 20N. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure north of the area will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds through Wed. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will follow a cold front moving into the waters off northeast Florida Thu night. A low will develop along the front by Fri evening and strong to near gale force are anticipated to develop over the waters off northeast Florida through Sat. Frequents gusts to gale force are possible Fri night off northeast Florida. The cold front is expected to extend from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sun night. $$ DELGADO