000 AXNT20 KNHC 021417 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Nov 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 35.0N 40.9W at 02/0900 UTC or 700 nm W of the Azores moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection within 90 nm of the center on the northern quadrant. During the next couple of days, Wanda is likely to remain embedded within a mid- tropospheric trough. A turn toward the north is expected during the next 48 to 60 hours while the system moves along the eastern portion of the trough. Later in the forecast period, a ridge building to the west and northwest of Wanda should force a turn toward the east and east-southeast. Please see the latest Wanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. Locally Heavy Rainfall expected across portions of Central America: A low pressure system located along the eastern coast of Costa Rica is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to move westward over Central America later today, and significant development is unlikely due to its interaction with land. However, this disturbance will still produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama through today, which could result in flooding and mudslides. By Wednesday, the system is forecast to move into the far eastern portion of the eastern Pacific basin. In addition, a shearline in the Gulf of Honduras is forecast to support rainfall in parts of Honduras, Guatemala and Belize through early Fri. A moist and unstable atmosphere is already in place over most of Central America along with moist southwest winds south of the monsoon trough. All these ingredients are supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, eastern Nicaragua and some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details, and consult products from your local meteorological offices. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 07N21W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N21W to 05N25W to 10N35W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 04N between 10W and 13W, from 02N05N between 18W and 21W, and from 03N from 06N between 27W and 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1033 mb high pressure system over the central United States extends southward into the Gulf of Mexico. The dry continental airmass that moved into the region behind the previous cold front continues to limit the development of showers and thunderstorms. Currently, fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail across the basin. The weak pressure gradient result in moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will maintain light to gentle easterly breezes and slight seas through mid week. Winds will increase to moderate by Thu over the northern Gulf as a trough develops over the southeast Gulf and ahead of a cold front moving into the northwest Gulf early Thu. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are forecast for the waters W of 94W early Thu evening through Fri, decreasing to moderate to fresh in the region of Veracruz on Sat. The front will reach from near Tampa, Florida to the W Bay of Campeche Fri morning and fresh to strong NE winds will develop over the offshore waters between the Florida Big Bend and the front. The front will exit the basin Fri night, allowing seas to gradually subside through late Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A shear line extends from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are west of this line, which is also supporting scattered showers and tstms. This feature will slowly shift westward through Wed, supporting the continuation of showers and fresh NE winds in the NW Caribbean. Farther south, 1009 mb low pressure remains anchored along the monsoon trough near 10N81W, north of western Panama and east Costa Rica. A relatively weak pressure pattern is in place elsewhere, supporting gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas. Other than the showers and thunderstorms near the shear line, only a few showers are noted over the Leeward Islands. For the forecast, the shear line feature will slowly shift westward through Wed, supporting the continuation of showers and fresh NE winds in the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the southwest Caribbean will diminish today as a low pressure over the SW Caribbean weakens into a surface trough through mid week. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the central and E basin through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N55W to 26N63W, then is stationary to eastern Cuba. No significant weather is observed along the front. Over the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N37W to 20N50W to 20N60W. Farther east, an upper trough from 31N35W to 15N40W to 10N50W is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from north of 15N between 30W and 35W. A 1010 mb low is centered in this area near 17N35W. Fresh to strong winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are evident north of 25N between 25W and 40W, and from from 13N to 17N between 25W and 35W. Mostly moderate winds and seas are evident elsewhere. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash cloud detectable on satellite imagery extending northward and eastward. Medium volcanic ash consentrations is evident in vicinity of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes /la- palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will dissipate later today. High pressure building behind the front will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds through mid week, except occasionally pulsing to fresh off Hispaniola mainly at night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N to NE winds will follow a front moving into the waters off northeast Florida late Fri. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front over the waters west of 77W Fri night into Sat. $$ GR