000 AXNT20 KNHC 012300 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Nov 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 34.2N 42.2W at 2100 UTC, or 770 nm WSW of the Azores moving ENE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 150 nm across the NE quadrant of Wanda as vertical wind shear has diminished today. This has allow Wanda to transition from a subtropical cyclone to a tropical cyclone. A very complex steering flow pattern is expected to prevail in the region near Wanda, and this will likely yield a zig-zag motion across the north-central Atlantic during the next several days, resulting in a net eastward track toward the western Azores. Some slight increase in the strength of Wanda is possible during the next 48 hours as wind shear remains weak. Please see the latest Wanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The weak tropical wave is analyzed along 42W, from 08N to 18N, moving W around 10 kt. The wave is embedded in a dry airmass that is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. No significant clouds or convection is seen near the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N16W to 05N21W to 06.5N28W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 05N between 10W and 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge prevails across the Gulf waters this afternoon producing light to gentle winds and seas generally in the 1-3 ft range. A band of high clouds extends from the Tampico, Mexico area northeastward, to coastal zones from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Florida Big Bend. Otherwise, only widely scattered narrow bands of low clouds prevail across the basin as stable atmospheric conditions prevail. Weak high pressure north of the area will maintain light to gentle easterly breezes and slight seas through Tue. Winds will increase to moderate Wed over the northern half of the Gulf, ahead of a cold front expected to move into the northwest Gulf Wed night into Thu. The front will reach from near Tampa, Florida to the W Bay of Campeche Fri morning and fresh to strong NE winds will develop over the offshore waters between the Florida Big Bend and the front. The front will exit the basin Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating frontal boundary extends from near Cabo Cruz in eastern Cuba to near the Honduras-Nicaragua border. A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed over the SW Caribbean near 10.5N81W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the frontal boundary while clusters of moderate to strong thunderstorms are noted S of 14N and W of 81W. This convective activity is currently affecting extreme NW Panama, and extends well inland across the coastal zones of Costa Rica and eastern Nicaragua. A late morning scatterometer pass showed the cyclonic circulation related to the low center, with fresh to locally strong winds in the NE quadrant of the low. Fresh to strong winds are also seen near the convective activity associated with this low. Fresh northerly winds are in the wake of the front in the lee of eastern Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh trades are near the coast of Colombia. Seas are 2-4 ft across the basin, with the exception of 4-7 ft near the aforementioned low pressure, and just W of the frontal boundary S of 18N. The dissipating frontal remnants will slowly shift westward through Wed, supporting the continuation of showers and fresh NE winds in the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE winds over Nicaragua adjacent waters will diminish Tue as the low pressure over the SW Caribbean weakens into a surface trough. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the central and E basin through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N61W to far eastern Cuba near 21N75W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are along the front south of 24N. Light to gentle winds are on either side of the front. A 1018 high pressure is ahead of the front near 23.5N65W. A surface trough stretches from the eastern side of Wanda through 31N42W to 24N45W to 21N55W. Satellite derived wind data clearly indicate the wind shift associated with the trough as well as fresh to strong southerly winds N of 26N E of the trough to about 31W. The pressure gradient between this trough and a high pressure of 1024 mb located W of the Madeira Islands supports these winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ahead of trough mainly N of 29N. Over the tropical Atlantic, 1010 mb low pressure is located near 14.5N33.5W or several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity mainly within 360 nm E through NE of the low. Visible satellite imagery today showed a well defined swirl of low clouds associated with the low center. This system is moving northwestward into a region of less conducive upper- level winds, and the chances of tropical cyclone development are decreasing. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash emission is visible on satellite data. Medium to high volcanic ash concentration over volcano and vicinity. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. West of 65W, look for the frontal boundary to stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba this evening, then dissipate Tue morning. High pressure building behind the front will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds through mid week, except occasionally pulsing to fresh off Hispaniola mainly at night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N to NE winds will follow a front moving into the waters off northeast Florida late Fri. $$ Stripling