000 AXNT20 KNHC 300557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Oct 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers continue to show some signs of organization near a strong, frontal low pressure system located several hundred miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. This nontropical low is likely to lose its associated fronts while it moves southeastward toward slightly warmer waters during the next day or two, and it could make a transition to a subtropical storm this weekend or early next week over the central Atlantic. There is a medium chance of development for this system. For more detail information, please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane center at this website: http://nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays+2 The High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane and Ocean Prediction Centers can be found at this website: http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W from 16N southward and moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 27W and 31W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough exits the Senegal coast near 14N17W then curves west-southwestward through a 1011 mb low pressure near 07N33W to 06N38W. The ITCZ continues from 06N38W to 07N51W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 180 nm N of the monsoon trough between the Senegal coast and 26W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present S of the monsoon trough up to 290 nm between the Guinea coast and 26W. Farther W, scattered moderate convection is found near the low from 04N to 09N between 31W and 35W. The eastern end of the E Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Costa Rica, Panama, N Colombia and adjacent Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough reaches southwestward from Georgi-Florida border to the E central Gulf. Patchy showers are seen across the NE and E central Gulf, including central Florida. Satellite scatterometer data indicate W to NW winds across the N central and NE Gulf have decreased below gale force earlier this evening. Nevertheless, strong low pressure systems near the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. continue to enhance fresh to strong with locally near-gale W to NW winds N of 22N between the Florida coast and 94W. Seas in this area are gradually subsiding but still in the range of 12 to 18 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are present in the NW, S central and SE Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. For the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche, a ridge of high pressure provides gentle to moderate NNW winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, in the wake of a cold front, strong W-NW winds encompass the basin north of 23N, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas of 12 ft or greater north of 22N and east of 94W will gradually subside to below 8 ft by Sun. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are then forecast for the end of the weekend into next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The southern portion of a cold front extends southwestward from near central Cuba to N Honduras. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near and up to 180 nm SE of the front across central Cuba and the Caribbean waters. Numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring over N and W Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the basin. Latest satellite scatterometer and model data show moderate to fresh with locally strong NW to N winds with seas at 7 to 10 ft, behind the cold front over the NW corner of the Caribbean basin N of 18N. S of 18N including the Gulf of Honduras, moderate NW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident. For the rest of the W Caribbean Basin from the cold front eastward to 74W, gentle SE to S winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft are present. Gentle to moderate E to ESE trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the cold front will move through the rest of the NW Caribbean this weekend, before stalling Sun night from E Cuba to offshore of Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas up to 12 ft can be expected in the wake of the cold front, especially in and near the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, a weak ridge over the northern Caribbean Sea ahead of the front will support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin, with locally fresh winds off the coast of Venezuela. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends south-southwestward from E of N Carolina across 31N72W and the NW Bahamas through the N coast of central Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near and up to 100 nm SE of the front across the Bahamas and Atlantic waters. Farther E at the central Atlantic, the southwestern end of another cold front is triggering scattered moderate convection N of 26N between 46W and 56W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the basin. Moderate to fresh SW to WSW winds with seas of 6 to 10 ft are seen between the cold front and Georgia-Florida coast, including the NW Bahamas. From the cold front eastward to 69W, gentle to moderate SSW winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are found N of 24N. Moderate to fresh WSW to WNW winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft are evident near the second cold front N of 27N between 43W and 61W. Otherwise, light to gentle winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the central Atlantic N of 21N between NW African coast and 67W. Moderate to fresh NE trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft exist from 11N to 21N between the Mauritania-Senegal coast and 34W. Light to gentle NE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft are found from 03N to 21N between 34W and the Lesser Antilles/S American coast. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh S to SW monsoonal winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 65W, the first cold front will move slowly east and reach Bermuda to the N and E Cuba to the S by the end of this weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected on both sides of the front through Sat night, mainly N of 27N. Seas of 8 ft or greater will continue to fill in across the northern waters tonight, then linger through Sun before subsiding. The front will weaken as it stretches from 30N65W to the Turks and Caicos Islands Mon with gentle to moderate NE flow then prevailing into midweek. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. A volcanic ash cloud is slowly drifting south. High volcanic ash concentration remains in the vicinity of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. $$ Chan