000 AXNT20 KNHC 241754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Oct 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is E of the Cabo Verde Islands near 20W from 17N southward, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to 15N between the African coast and 26W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is E of the Windward Islands near 58W from 16N southward into Guayana, and moving W around 15 kt. Aided by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are occurring from the coast of Guayana and NE Venezuela to 13N between 53W and 61W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W from Haiti southward to Colombia-Venezuela border, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near the Colombia- Venezuela border. Another Caribbean tropical wave is E of the Yucatan Peninsular near 85W from 20N southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the Pacific Ocean, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the SW basin, including the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough exits through the African coast at Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 07N24W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N24W to 03N48W, E of N Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found S the monsoon trough from 02N to 11N between the coast of Guinea-Sierra Leone and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is evident near the ITCZ from 02N to 09N between 23W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough runs northeastward from N of the Yucatan Peninsular to S of the Florida Big Bend area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across the central and E Gulf. Otherwise, gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for much of the Gulf. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin today and become light to gentle Mon and Tue. A strong cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast on Wed and then across the basin through Fri. Anticipate fresh to strong winds and rough seas across the N and central Gulf starting Wed and continuing through late week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on convection across the Caribbean Basin. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trades with seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate the central basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support fresh to locally strong trades E of the Windward Islands and across the eastern Caribbean through Mon night. Winds are also expected to pulse between fresh and strong in the Venezuela basin through Sun night, with fresh to locally strong winds on Mon evening. Gentle to moderate trade winds are expect to prevail across the basin from Tue through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough curves northeastward from the NW coast of Cuba across the NW Bahamas to SW of Bermuda. Scattered moderate convection is noted from near the central Bahamas eastward to SE of Bermuda. Another surface trough well SW of the Azores near 26N41W is triggering similar conditions over the central Atlantic, N of 26N between 34W and 40W. Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms along the coast of Suriname and French Guiana coast, and adjacent waters. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the basin. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate N of 26N between the African coast and 56W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are found from the Greater Antilles to 31N between 26W and the Florida-George coast. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident from 04N to 26N between the African coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds with seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash clouds and some SO2 have been emitted periodically from the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast W of 65W, a trough extending across the NW Bahamas and off the SE Florida coast will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region today. Moderate to locally fresh winds will develop off the Florida coast today through Mon near an old boundary. By Mon afternoon, a low will develop off the Georgia coast. This low will bring fresh to strong southerly winds NE of the Bahamas Mon afternoon and continue spreading eastward as the low lifts to the NE. Fresh to strong winds will continue N of 27N through Wed. $$ Chan