262 AXNT20 KNHC 241029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Oct 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 18W from 16N southward, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present E of 20W to the coast of Africa. An Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 16N southward to Guayana, moving W around 15 kt. Associated convection is noted south of 12N between 50W to 60W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W from Hispaniola to W Venezuela, moving W near 15 kt. Subsidence and drier air aloft is hindering any significant convection near this wave axis. Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W south of 20N, moving W around 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough exits through the African coast near Guinea near 13N16W to 06N24W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N24W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate convection is found near the monsoon trough from 06N to 12N between 20W to 24W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident about 180 nm north of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1010 mb low pressure near 20N94W has a surface trough extending NW to near Tampico, Mexico. Significant upper-level moisture and synoptic scale lift is leading to disorganized scattered convection over a broad area of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are found across much of the Gulf, except locally fresh winds with seas up to 6 ft near in the NW Gulf. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin and become light to gentle through Tuesday. A strong cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast on Wednesday and move across the basin through Thu. Expect fresh to strong winds and rough seas across the northern and central Gulf later in the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on convection across the Caribbean Basin. Otherwise moderate to fresh trades dominate the central and eastern basin, with gentle to moderate winds in the west. Some locally strong winds are occurring offshore the South American coast. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the central and eastern basin, and 2 to 4 ft in the west. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present in the SW Caribbean associated to the Pac monsoon trough extending from northern Colombia west across Costa Rica. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support fresh to locally strong trades E of the Windward Islands and across the eastern Caribbean through Mon night. Winds are also expected to pulse fresh to strong in the Venezuela basin tonight through Mon evening. By Tue and Wed, gentle to moderate tradewinds are expect to prevail across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough curves southwestward from SW of Bermuda across the NW Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 30N and W of 72W. Two surface trough are analyzed east of the trough in the Bahamas. Trough to the north is located near 31N68W to 30N71W. Further south, the second trough is analyzed from 26N68W to 26N72W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for additional convection across the Atlantic Basin. Moderate trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present N of 16N between the NW African coast and 60W. W of 71W, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are seen from the Greater Antilles northward to 31N. Moderate to fresh NE trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft are found from 05N to 16N between 36W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Continues ash emission is noted with small column height. Medium to high volcanic ash concentration in the vicinity of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast W of 65W, a trough extending across the northern Bahamas and off the southeast Florida coast will continue to support scattered moderate convection across the region today. A weak boundary the Atlantic waters will slowly meander southward and dissipate today. This will enhance additional convection through early in the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds will develop off the Florida coast on Sun into Mon near the old boundary. $$ Torres