000 AXNT20 KNHC 160926 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Oct 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1004 mb low pressure center is located near 33N42W. A cold front extends from 31N43W to 28N50W, with a trough continuing to just north of Hispaniola. A tight pressure gradient between the front and a surface ridge to the east is supporting minimal gale force winds east of the front. Seas over the gale area are currently reaching near 13 ft. The low pressure area will continue to shift further NE away from the area, with the gales moving north of the area by tonight. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is over the NW Gulf of Mexico. The front will continue to spread southeast across the Gulf waters this weekend. Fresh to strong winds are currently west of the low. Winds will increase to gale force this afternoon over the waters off Tampico, Mexico this afternoon. The gale force winds will spread southward, extending off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico early Sun through Sun afternoon. Seas will peak near 15 ft off Veracruz, Mexico Sun afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both warnings. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W south of 19N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 10N and between 30W and 35W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 48W south of 19N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between 45W and 50W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W south of 20N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No deep convection is observed near the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W south of 19N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 11N between 80W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 06N31W. It resumes from 06N34W to 07N46W, and then from 08N48W to 09N60W. Aside from convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 24W and 30W, and from 01N to 09N between 35W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features for information on the Gale Warning. A cold front is over the NW far Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds, and building seas are west of the front. Weak high pressure is over the eastern Gulf. Light to gentle wind prevail over the remainder of the Gulf with seas of 1-3 ft. For the forecast, the cold front over the NW Gulf will reach south central Florida to western Bay of Campeche Sun morning. Gale- force N winds will briefly move across the Mexican waters this afternoon through evening and are then expected to develop off of Veracruz early Sun through late afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Caribbean waters. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, are over the central and eastern Caribbean waters south of 14N. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will continue across the Caribbean basin, which will maintain tranquil marine conditions. A cold front will enter the NW Atlc over the weekend and move SE. High pres building in the wake of the front will bring a return to moderate trade winds to the Caribbean Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning over the north-central tropical Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N43W to 28N50W, with a trough continuing to just north of Hispaniola. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of the front, and the trough axis east of 60W. Aside from the gale conditions east of the front, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are found north of 20N and east of 60W. West of 60W, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas west of 60W are in the 3-5 ft range over the open waters, and 1-3 ft west of the Bahamas. Over the tropical waters south of 20N, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Low ash concentrations moving NW. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes /la-palma/ For the forecast W of 65W, a cold front will move southeastward off the SE U.S. coast and across Florida by the end of the weekend. The cold front will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Mon morning. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds behind the front through Mon morning. $$ AL