143 AXNT20 KNHC 150905 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Oct 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A broad 1003 mb low pressure is located near 26N61W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within an area from 23N61W to 31N52W to 31N43W to 23N55W to 23N61W. Strong to near- gale force winds, and seas of 8 to 10 ft, are occurring within 360 nm southeast of the center. The low is forecast to deepen as it accelerates to the northeast today. Gale force winds are expected to develop southeast of the low this morning. The area of gale force winds will move N of the area on Saturday. Seas up to 13 ft are expected within the area of gales. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W/27W south of 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N and 10N between 25W and 30W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W/43W south of 18N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N and 10N between 40W and 45W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W south of 17N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. No deep convection is observed near the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W south of 19N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 74W and 80W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W south of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen over Central America near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 05N26W. It resumes from 06N28W to 06N40W. It resumes from 06N43W to 03N50W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 17W and 25W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 30W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from high pressure over the SE United States SW across the northern waters. A surface trough extends over the waters west of the Florida peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the SE Gulf with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight with fresh to strong northerly winds following it. The front will reach south central Florida to western Bay of Campeche Sun morning with moderate to fresh N to NE winds across most of the Gulf. Gale- force N winds are possible across the Mexican waters Sat night and are expected to develop off of Veracruz Sun morning through afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Caribbean waters. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the central and eastern Caribbean waters south of 14N. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, an upper level trough extending from the Bahamas to the NW Caribbean will support active weather across the central Caribbean and extreme NE Caribbean today. A weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean basin will lead to tranquil marine conditions. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the section above for more on the Gale Warning over the Atlantic waters. Aside from the low pressure system mentioned in the Special Features section, a stationary front extends from 31N31W to 28N38W to 31N58W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the tropical waters south of 20N, with seas in the 5 to 8 ft range. Aside from the winds associated to the gale force low mentioned above, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the tropical and subtropical waters north of 20N. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range N of 25N between 30W and 40W with 3-5 ft seas elsewhere over the open waters. West of the Bahamas, seas are in the 1-3 ft range. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Significant volcanic ash is possible near the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/ For the forecast W of 65W, low pres 1003 mb near 26N61W will accelerate NE and further from the area today. This system will produce active weather that will impact the regional waters through early today. A cold front will move southeastward across Florida by the end of the weekend, bringing fresh northerly winds off the Florida coast. $$ AL