000 AXNT20 KNHC 090606 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Oct 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could briefly become marginally conducive for the low to acquire subtropical characteristics by Saturday night and early Sunday. This low is forecast to begin moving slowly toward the west- northwest tonight and then northwest on Saturday, bringing the system closer to the coasts of the Carolinas. Regardless of development, intermittent periods of locally heavy rains and gusty winds will affect eastern portions of the Carolinas through the weekend. There is a medium chance of development for this low over the next 48 hours. Interests along the Carolina coast should monitor this system closely and read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.hurricanes.gov and Mariners can read the High Seas Forecast from the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 16N southward and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 09N between 41W and 47W. A newly analyzed tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles along 52W from 18N southwestward and moving W near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 51W and 57W. It is expected to bring showers and gusty winds to the Windward Islands Sunday or Monday. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from the Dominican Republic southward across NW Venezuela into E central Colombia, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over Haiti and N central Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends southwestward through the Senegal coast near 15N17W to 07N25W. The ITCZ continues westward from 07N25W to 07N42W, and then from 07N44W to 06N49W. Scattered moderate convection is found near the monsoon trough from 04N to 14N between the Africa coast and 25W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present near the ITCZ from 02N to 12N between 25W and 39W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front curves southwestward from NE Florida to the E central Gulf, then continues as a weak stationary front to just N of the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident up to 50 nm SE of this boundary, including central Florida. Convergent surface winds S of the stationary front are triggering similar conditions across the S Bay of Campeche, including the Mexico coast. Gentle to moderate winds and seas up to 4 ft are possible near these showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure extending southwestward from S Louisiana/Mississippi to NE Mexico is providing light to gentle winds with seas at 1 to 3 ft over the N Gulf. For the forecast, part of the frontal boundary will transition into a frontal trough overnight, maintaining scattered showers and thunderstorms over the SE Gulf. The frontal trough will then move across south Florida and the SE Gulf on Sat while dissipating on Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow is expected over the western Gulf late Sun through Wed night under the influence of a ridge. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Modest convergent trade winds are producing isolated thunderstorms across Cuba and the adjacent waters, and over the SE basin near the Windward Islands. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the basin. With weaker pressure gradient, gentle to moderate ENE trades with seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted across the E and central basin. Light to gentle ENE trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the W basin. For the forecast, a tropical wave currently located E of the Lesser Antilles along 54W/55W is producing fresh to strong winds and some convective activity. The wave will reach the Lesser Antilles late Sat, entering the eastern Caribbean by Sat night. Then, this system is forecast to move across the US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Sun night into Mon, likely reaching Hispaniola late on Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough runs southwestward to the low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section above to the central Florida coast. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are flaring up from S Florida northeastward across the NW Bahamas to SW of Bermuda. Weak surface troughing is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the central Atlantic from 24N to 31N between 40W and 66W. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas up to 7 ft are possible near these showers and thunderstorms. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the basin. A modest surface ridge stretches west-southwestward from a 1027 mb Azores high to E of the Bahamas. It is promoting light to gentle winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft N of 24N between 31W and 70W. Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are found S of 10N between the Africa and S America coasts. Moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory, that is issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast W of 65W, a nearly stationary area of low pressure remains N of area about 200 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This system continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could briefly become marginally conducive for the low to acquire subtropical characteristics by Saturday night and early Sunday. By early next week, environmental conditions should become unfavorable for any further development. The low is forecast to begin moving slowly toward the west-northwest tonight and then northwest on Saturday, bringing the system closer to the coasts of the Carolinas. A surface trough extending from the low center to central Florida is producing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. This convective activity will spread across South Florida and the NW Bahamas on Sat. $$ Chan