000 AXNT20 KNHC 081053 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Oct 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W/37W from 16N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 10N between 30W to 40W. Another tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 64W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted on either side of the wave axis from 13N to 17N between 62W and 70W. Similar convective activity is affecting the Windward Islands, and the waters E of Barbados. Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong winds in the wake of the wave axis, including the Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles and mainly S of Guadeloupe. A tropical wave is near 92W and extends from the E Bay of Campeche southward across SE Mexico into the E Pacific Ocean, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is over the E Bay of Campeche, including the Mexican coast. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over Africa while the ITCZ extends westward from the Sierra Leone coastline at 08N13W to 06N25W to 07N35W to 08N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 09N between 14W and 27W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is over the western Florida Panhandle and extends southwestward to near 28N88W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ahead of the front near the Florida Big Bend area. A surface trough stretches from 28N88W to 22N92W while the northern extent of a tropical wave is over the eastern Bay of Campeche generating scattered showers and thunderstorms. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to strong northerly winds between the tropical wave and the coast of Mexico, including the Veracruz region. Moderate to fresh E winds dominate the Straits of Florida with gentle to moderate NE to E winds blowing across the remainder of the Gulf waters. A pair of altimeter passes indicate seas of 2 to 4 ft across the Gulf region. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure along eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico and the northern extent of a tropical wave over the eastern Bay of Campeche will support moderate to locally fresh northerly winds over the Veracruz adjacent waters through early this evening. Weak high pressure will build across the E half of the Gulf this upcoming weekend into early next week, and support moderate to locally fresh return flow W of 90W Sun through Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The most recent scatterometer data indicate the presence of fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong NE winds are also noted across the Windward passage. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 64W. Fresh to strong easterly winds follow the wave. Please, see the Tropical Wave section for more details. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 6-8 ft across the south-central Caribbean, 5-6 ft E of 64W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Outside of the convective activity associated with the tropical wave, isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted over the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades are expected across the south-central Caribbean most of the forecast period as a weak ridge persist N of the Caribbean Sea. The tropical wave along 64W is forecast to reach the central Caribbean on Sat. A low level disturbance, currently located along 51W/52W, is accompanied by fresh to strong winds and active weather. It is forecast to reach the Windward Islands on Sat, and move across the eastern Caribbean Sun into Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An elongated area of low pressure located N of area and more than 100 miles off the coast of South Carolina is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms well to the east of its center of circulation. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any significant tropical or subtropical development during the next few days. By late this weekend, the low is expected to interact with a frontal boundary located to its north, which should end the opportunity for tropical or subtropical formation. Regardless of development, the low is forecast to move slowly east-northeastward at about 5 mph, and it could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to eastern portions of the Carolinas through the weekend. A stationary front enters the forecast region near 31N30W and continues SW to near 28N45W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the front/trough between 42W and 60W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 5-7 ft are near these features. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are between the SE Bahamas and Cuba, with fresh to strong winds near the approach to the Windward passage. Similar wind speeds are related to the low level disturbance located near 51W/52W, and N of the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate to fresh trades dominate roughly the waters from 10N to 20N between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Farther E, high pressure of 1021 mb located near 32N23W dominates the eastern Atlantic. An upper-level low situated just NE of the Cabo Verde Islands near 20N22W is generating some shower activity. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September at 1410 UTC. An ash plume is partially identifiable on satellite imagery drifting westward toward the Tenerife Island. Top is estimated with Webcams at 11,000 ft. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory, that is issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes /la-palma/. the next advisory will be issued no later than 08/1500 UTC. For the forecast W of 65W, An elongated area of low pressure located N of area and more than 100 miles off the coast of South Carolina is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms well to the east of its center of circulation. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any significant tropical or subtropical development during the next few days. By late this weekend, the low is expected to interact with a frontal boundary located to its north, which should end the opportunity for tropical or subtropical formation. The frontal boundary is forecast to move slowly across the NW Bahamas and south Florida during the upcoming weekend. $$ GR