000 AXNT20 KNHC 060619 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Oct 06 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along a NNW-to-SSE line, between 20W and 22W, from 18N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 12N to 18N between 20W and 24W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W, from 19N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and widely scattered strong is from the ITCZ to 14N between 36W and 50W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W, from 16N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and Central America within 480 nm to the west of the 78W tropical wave. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas that are from 70W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W, to 04N19W, 02N28W, 04N32W 06N44W, and to 06N56W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 13N southward. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from the coast of west central Florida to the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A stationary front extends from a 1012 mb coastal Mississippi low pressure center, to the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the area at the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm on either side of the line that runs from NE Florida near 30N81W, to 25N90W, to 20N97W at the coast of Mexico. Moderate wind speeds cover the area. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet. A weak ridge NE of the Gulf will weaken over the region through the end of the week, supporting tranquil conditions across the basin. A weak cold front from coastal Mississippi to the Bay of Campeche along 94.5W will drift E overnight before stalling then dissipating Wed through Thu. Expect gentle to moderate northerly wind west of the front through Thu except fresh along the coast near Veracruz. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is along 78W, from 16N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and Central America within 480 nm to the west of the 78W tropical wave. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas that are from 70W westward. The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 74W in Colombia, beyond Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: numerous strong covers the areas of northern Colombia, from 08N to 10N between the border with Venezuela and 76W. Earlier numerous strong, that was covering the areas that are from 10N to 13N between 73W and 78W, now is widely scattered moderate to isolated strong. Strong winds are from 18N southward between 63W and 75W. Moderate to fresh winds cover the rest of the area that is from 82W eastward. Gentle wind speeds, or slower, are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet between the Mona Passage and 80W. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere. High pressure, currently just E of Bermuda, will slide slowly ENE through Wed, before winds diminish E of 67W Wed night and Thu. Moderate N to NE swell from Sam will affect the tropical Atlc waters through Wed night. Winds and seas will diminish significantly early Fri through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 20N northward between 63W and 80W. A surface trough curves along 33N71W 28N76W, to the coast of Cuba near 23N79W on the Atlantic Ocean side of Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the east of the surface trough from 26N to 30N. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward. Upper level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant tropical development of this system, while it moves slowly northwestward or northward during the next few days. The system is forecast to interact with a front, near the coast of the southeastern United States around that time, and tropical development still appears unlikely. It is possible that the upper level winds may become a little less hostile by the weekend. A surface trough is between 52W and 54W, from 15N to 26N. This is the remnant of Victor, that weakened and dissipated on 04 October at 1500 UTC. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 22N to 28N between 45W and 56W. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September at 1410 UTC. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory, that is issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. Strong winds are within 150 nm on either side of the line that runs from 26N15W to 19N22W to 17N31W, from 10N to 19N between 36W and 45W, and in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean from 17N to 23N between 63W and 73W. Moderate to fresh winds cover the areas that are from 07N northward. Gentle wind speeds, or slower, are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet from 20N northward between 40W and 50W, and from 20N to 28N between 50W and 65W. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet: elsewhere from 65W westward, from 10N to 20N between 30W and 60W, and from 13N northward from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet: from 10N southward between 30W and 60W, and from 13N southward from 30W eastward. High pressure just E of Bermuda will slide slowly ENE through Thu. This will produce moderate to fresh trade winds south of 25N and east of 74W through Tue night before spreading into the southeast and central Bahamas Wed and Thu. The swell generated from Sam will continue to impact the SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas through Wed night. Active weather is expected to continue through Wed across the waters north of the Bahamas, as surface trough currently along 76.5W moves northwest during the next few days. $$ mt