000 AXNT20 KNHC 281055 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Sep 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Sam was centered near 17.2N 53.9W at 28/0900 UTC or 530 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas near the center are currently around 30 ft and are forecast to increase to near 38 ft by Thu. Satellite imagery continues to show a well-defined eye. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 100 nm of the center in the E and within 60 nm of the center in the W quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm of the center. Sam is moving toward the northwest and is expected to continue for the next few days, with an increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday. A turn toward the north is expected by Friday. On the forecast track, Sam will pass well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through late this week. Swells generated by Sam will impact the Lesser Antilles for the next several days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas within a couple of days, and then spread to the United States east coast late this week. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory at https://nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/ A well-defined low pressure system associated with the remnants of Peter is located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted well to the NE of the center. Although strong upper-level winds are likely to prevent significant development, this system could still become a short- lived tropical depression later today or tonight while it moves northeastward at about 10 mph. By Wednesday, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. This system has a medium chance of development during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 kt over the central tropical Atlantic. This system has a high chance of development during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a day or two while the disturbance moves westward to west- northwestward at 10-15 kt over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. This system has a high chance of development during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A well-defined low pressure area associated with the remnants of Peter is located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this system has become less organized since early Monday. Although strong upper-level winds are likely to prevent significant development, this system could still become a short-lived tropical depression later today or tonight while it moves northeastward at about 10 mph. By Wednesday, however, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. This system has a medium chance of development in the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please see the Special Features section for information on the tropical wave along 17W. An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W, south of 17N and it is moving W at 10-15 kt. The convection near the tropical wave is likely associated with the broad low pressure discussed in the Special Features section. The northern portion of the wave is devoid of deep convection due to the dry Saharan air N of 13N. Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W, south of 16N and it is moving W near 10 kt. A few showers are noted where the wave interacts with the nearby monsoon trough and ITCZ. The wave is devoid of deep convection due to the dry Saharan air N of 9N. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W, south of 19N and it is moving W near 10 kt. The wave is embedded in a dry environment, suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 08N22W to a 1010 mb low near 08N33W to 05N39W. The ITCZ extends from 05N39W to 05N44W, then begins W of a tropical wave near 05N45W to 06N53W. Aside from convection as described above under Special Features, scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm N of the ITCZ between 40W to 54W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough is located about 60 nm offshore of Texas and SW Louisiana, paralleling the coastline. Showers and thunderstorms are within 50 nm of the trough. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the eastern Gulf and in the Bay of Campeche. The rest of the Gulf is dominated by a weak ridge positioned over the SE United States. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are found in the Florida Straits, in the E Bay of Campeche and NW Gulf, while gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere in the basin. Seas of 3-4 ft are occurring in the Florida Straits, while 1-3 ft are present elsewhere in the Gulf. For the forecast, the trough continues to extend off the coast from southwest Louisiana to south Texas. It will drift westward toward the Texas coast this morning. High pressure will persist across the eastern and central Gulf through mid week. A weak cold front will move into the eastern Gulf toward the end of the week and exit the area during the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds are expected across most of the Gulf on Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Numerous strong convection is noted in the SW Caribbean, being enhanced by the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, S of 12N between 76W to 82W. A surface trough extends south of Cuba and west of Jamaica from 21N79W to 17N79W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to 20N between 76W and 80W. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted south of Hispaniola and west of the Windward Islands. A weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean results in moderate to locally fresh trades, with the strongest winds found within 100 nm of N Colombia and NW Venezuela based on overnight scatterometer satellite pass. Seas of 3-5 ft are present in the central and SW Caribbean, while 1-3 ft are occurring in the E Caribbean and 1-2 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Sam was near 17.2N 53.9W 953 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt. Sam will move to 17.9N 54.7W this afternoon, 18.8N 55.9W Wed morning, 19.9N 57.4W Wed afternoon, 21.3N 59.0W Thu morning, 23.2N 60.5W Thu afternoon, and 25.6N 61.5W Fri morning. Sam will change little in intensity as it moves north of the area early Sat. Meanwhile, moderate trades will continue over much of the Caribbean today. Gentle trades will then prevail over the Caribbean through Fri. Swells generated by Sam are forecast to continue off the Leeward Islands through the middle of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Sam and the disturbances in the deep Tropics. The Cumbre Vieja volcano on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands has been erupting since 19/1410 UTC. Volcanic ashes associated with lava fountains are observed on webcams reaching 3,500 meters. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. The next advisory will be issued no later than 28/1500 UTC. A stationary front extends from 31N66W to 25N76W. A trough extends from the remnants of Peter near 33N58W to 25N71W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across this region of the Atlantic, from 20N to 29N between 57W and 80W, particularly near the two boundaries. Gentle winds prevail with seas to 4 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 30N30W to 20N38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along this feature from 20N to 31N between 29W to 38W. A 1016 mb low pressure, which is the remnants of Odette, was located near 30N44W with a trough extending along the low from 31N43W to 26N47W. The system is devoid of deep convection; however overnight satellite- derived wind data indicated that fresh winds were within 120 nm NE of the center. Overnight scatterometer data also show fresh to strong N-NE winds N of 19N and E of 25W, including the waters surrounding the Canary Islands, with the strongest winds occurring within 100 nm of the coast of Western Sahara. Seas in the area of 6-10 ft. Elsewhere in the basin outside of the influence of Hurricane Sam, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 4-8 ft. For the forecast W of 50W, the aforementioned stationary front extends from 31N65W to the northern Bahamas and is expected to dissipate this morning. Light to gentle breezes are expected to prevail with slight seas through Thu west of 65W. Meanwhile, Hurricane Sam was near 17.2N 53.9W 953 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt. Sam will change little in intensity as it moves north of the area by early Sat, staying east of Bermuda. At a minimum, expect rough seas in the outer swell from Sam from mid to late week, reaching as far west as 70W by Thu. $$ AReinhart