000 AXNT20 KNHC 090606 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Sep 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Larry is centered near 30.3N 60.8W at 09/0600 UTC or 235 NM ESE of Bermuda moving NNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Seas are peaking near 42 ft close to the center and may increase some during the next two days. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 90 NM of the center. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda today, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland late Friday. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Mindy is centered near 30.5N 84.0W at 09/0600 UTC or 15 NM ENE of Tallahassee Florida moving NE at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 NM of the center. Seas to 12 ft just south of Apalachicola, though these will diminish quickly on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to move into the Atlantic this morning. Gradual weakening is expected as Mindy moves over land and into an area of unfavorable upper-level winds. Please read the latest Offshore Zones Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W from 18N southward across the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving W around 15 kt. A surface trough is noted in association with this wave. No deep convection is currently occurring in association with this wave. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 16N southward and moving W around 15 kt. A distinct surface trough is noted from 09N40W to 13N39W, which is becoming separated from the tropical wave at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is found from 08N-14N between 38W-43W. A third Atlantic tropical wave is near 63W from 15N southward across Venezuela, and moving W around 15 kt. The wave is mainly monitored through the 700 mb trough diagnostics and the 700 mb rawindsonde observations. No deep convection is currently occurring in association with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W to 10N28W. Farther west, the ITCZ extends from 08N42W to 06N56W, inland over Suriname and French Guiana. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N-08N between 25N-35N. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Mindy. North of 27N and east of 87W, winds are SW fresh to strong along the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Mindy. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker across the Gulf this evening. Except in the vicinity of Mindy, seas are only 1-3 ft across the Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Mindy is near 29.9N 84.5W 1002 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NE at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Mindy will move inland to 31.0N 81.8W Thu morning then weaken to a tropical depression near 32.2N 77.7W Thu evening. Tropical Depression Mindy will reach 33.1N 73.7W Fri morning, 33.7N 70.7W Fri evening, then become a remnant low and move to 34.1N 68.5W Sat morning. Mindy will dissipate NW of Bermuda late Sun. Aside from Tropical Storm Mindy, a trough of low pressure over the SW Gulf will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms in that area into the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak north-south pressure gradient across the Caribbean is forcing only fresh E trades over the S central Caribbean and moderate or weaker trades elsewhere. Seas of 5-6 ft due to swell from Hurricane Larry continue in the Anegada Passage and the Mona Passage. Seas are also 5-6 ft over the central Caribbean with 3-4 ft elsewhere. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 15N-18N between 79W-85W. For the forecast, swells generated by Hurricane Larry will gradually subside across Atlantic waters of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola into Thu. As Larry moves farther north, the Atlantic ridge will build westward N of the Caribbean Sea bringing an increase in the trade wind flow late Thu into Fri. Locally strong winds are possible offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Honduras, mainly during the nights. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Major Hurricane Larry southeast of Bermuda. Aside from Hurricane Larry, weak Bermuda/Azores Highs are centered at 34N45W and 36N24W. The E trades are generally moderate or lighter across the basin, with the exception being of the very large wind field of Larry which has fresh or stronger winds around 250 NM radius from the center as observed by scatterometer winds this evening. Seas are 5-7 ft across the tropical N Atlantic, except in the vicinity of Larry. A Jason-3 altimeter pass indicated seas of 30 ft near 30N61W earlier this evening. No significant deep convection exists aside that described with Larry, the tropical waves, and the ITCZ/monsoon trough. For the forecast, large swells, currently E of 70W, generated by Hurricane Larry to the east, will continue to propagate to 75W Thu and 80W Thu night, with seas of over 8 ft expected. Seas will then subside into the weekend. Tropical Storm Mindy, which made landfall in the Florida Panhandle this evening, will weaken to a depression as it moves ENE, moving offshore into the Atlantic and remaining north of the area, as a tropical depression, Thu and Fri. $$ Landsea