000 AXNT20 KNHC 072302 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Sep 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Larry at 07/2100 UTC is near 25.1N 56.3W, about 621 nm SE of Bermuda. The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Larry is moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection extend 100 nm in the north semicircle and 90 nm in the S semicircle. Seas are peaking at 40 to 42 ft near the center. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to propagate across the forecast waters, with 8 ft or greater seas reaching 70W by Wed, and 75W on Thu. Seas are peaking at 38 to 40 ft near the center. For more information, please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 32N from 16N southward and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 31W and 37W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 15N southward across French Guiana into N central Brazil, and moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 07N between 50W and 56W. A third tropical wave is along 87W from E of Belize at 17N southward across Honduras into the E Pacific Ocean, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present across S Belize and waters N of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The N Africa monsoon trough passes through the coast of Mauritania near 16N16W to near the Cape Verde Islands at 13N24W. Latest scatterometer indicate the ITCZ begins from 08N25W to 07N32W, and from 07N35W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found S of the monsoon trough from 07N to 17N between the African coast and 23W. Scattered moderate convection is evident near the ITCZ from 07N to 09N between 28W and 31W, and farther W from 05N to 08N between 42W and 52W. The E Pacific monsoon trough extends from the northern coast of Colombia westward and reaches Costa Rica near 10N83W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring S of 13N between 73W to 83W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough reaches east-northeastward from a 1011 mb low pressure centered near 24N92W and the trough extends from 25N91W to 22N94W. Enhanced by an upper-level low in the vicinity near 24N94W, numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are noted from the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N to 28N between 84W and 92W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are present near this area. For the rest of the Gulf, light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are present. For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms have increased today over the south-central Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance. The system is expected to move slowly northeastward over the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development, but they are forecast to become more conducive for some limited tropical or subtropical cyclone development as the system nears the northern Gulf coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Aside from this low pressure, high pressure will continue to bring light to gentle winds and slight seas through Fri. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the N basin from 15N to 17N between 83W and 87W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for additional convection across the basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present across the E and central basin. Light to gentle trades and seas at 3 to 4 ft prevail the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, major Hurricane Larry will continue to move farther north of the area into late week. Swells generated by Hurricane Larry will continue to propagate across the Atlantic waters of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Wed night into Thu. Seas will gradually subside from E to W. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trade winds will persist, pulsing to fresh winds off Colombia mainly at night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for more information on major Hurricane Larry. A surface trough curves east-northeastward from N of the Bahamas at 28N75W to SW of Bermuda at 30N65W. Aided by a mid-level low near 28N69W, Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are flaring up off between the Florida coast to the Bahamas near 28N76W, and E of the Bahamas from 25N to 28N between 67W and 76W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for additional convection across the Atlantic Basin. A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from the 1021 mb Azores high through another 1016 mb high S of Bermuda at 25N66W to central Florida. Outside the influence of Larry, light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 8 ft are present N of 17N between 20W and Bahamas/Leeward Islands. Light S to WSW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are found N of 26N between the Bahamas and Georgia-Florida coast. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found NE of the Cape Verde Islands from 15N to 27N between the NW African coast and 20W. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast W of 65W, Hurricane Larry near 25.1N 56.3W 965 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt. Larry will move to 26.5N 57.4W Wed morning, 28.3N 58.8W Wed afternoon, 30.5N 60.5W Thu morning, 33.3N 61.7W Thu afternoon, 36.8N 61.2W Fri morning, and 41.7N 58.2W Fri afternoon. Larry will become extratropical as it moves to near 53.0N 48.0W Sat afternoon. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to propagate across the forecast waters, with 8 ft or greater seas reaching 70W by Wed, and 75W on Thu. $$ Torres