000 AXNT20 KNHC 040536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Larry is centered near 15.5N 43.3W at 04/0300 UTC or 1070 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. A feeder band extending out to 210 nm in the SW quadrant contains scattered moderate to strong convection. Peak seas are 31 ft. Larry will continue moving WNW through late Saturday. A slower NW motion is expected Sunday through Tuesday. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Larry is expected to remain at major hurricane strength through Wednesday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been added to the analysis over west Africa along 13W from 05N-20N, moving W at around 15 kt. The tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the coast of Africa by late Saturday. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N-17N, between 10W-20W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 30/31W from 19N southward, moving W at 20 kt. Dry Saharan air is preventing any significant convection at this time. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 67W from 20N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted east of the wave from 10N-15N between 60W-67W, including near Grenada and along portions of the north coast of Venezuela. NOAA buoy 42059 near 15.3N 67.5W is reporting ENE winds 19 kt gusting to 21 kt with 5 ft significant wave heights at midnight local time. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 81/82W from 12N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 11.5N and west of 76.5W in the far SW Caribbean, including over Panama and western Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W to 13N24W, where there is a discontinuation of the monsoon trough. It resumes southwest of Hurricane Larry near 11N46W to 09N50W. The ITCZ continues from 09N50W to 09N61W. Aside from the convection mentioned above, scattered moderate convection is seen south of ITCZ from 06N-09N between 53W-60W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 0300 UTC, a stationary front extends from New Port Richey Florida near 28N83W to near the Mouth of the Mississippi River with only isolated showers noted in the vicinity. South of the front, 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 27N91W. Ridging with light to gentle winds extends southeastward from the high to a 1017 mb high pressure in the Florida Straits, analyzed near 24N79W at 0300 UTC. Gentle winds cover much of the Gulf of Mexico, although fresh E winds are noted off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Sea are 1 to 3 ft across the basin, except 2 to 4 ft off the NW Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, a surface trough currently inland over Yucatan and Guatemala along 90W will move NW over the next few days, bringing potential for heavy rainfall. The disturbance is forecast to emerge over the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and then move northward or northeastward over the central Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week. Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to limit development through Monday, but conditions could become marginally favorable for some gradual development on Tuesday or Wednesday. The chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 5 days is low. Elsewhere, a stationary front over the north-central and northeast Gulf will gradually dissipate into early Sun, while weak high pressure dominates much of the remainder of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the tropical waves section above for details on a convectively active tropical wave that is presently over the eastern Caribbean. A mid to upper-level ridge is producing dry air and subsidence over the central Caribbean. Scattered moderate showers are over the northwest Caribbean, to the east of a surface trough that is inland along 90W over the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen over portions of Guatemala and southern Belize. Similar convection is inland over northern Colombia and eastern Panama, strongest from 07N to 08.5N between 73.5W and 78.5W. The latest ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate winds generally north of 17N between 70W-80W, and north of 20N west of 80W. Farther south, fresh trades prevail across much of the basin, with locally strong in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in the south-central to SW Caribbean, 1 to 3 ft south of Cuba through the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Larry will move to near 20N52W Sun evening, near 22N55W Mon evening, then pass well NE of the Leeward Islands, moving to near 25N 58.5W Tue evening. Large swell generated by the hurricane are expected to reach the Leeward Islands and NE Caribbean passages Sun night and Monday, persisting through at least Wed. Elsewhere, fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will pulse off Colombia through late Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Larry. A stationary front extends from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral Florida. A 1013 mb low is along the front at 29.5N 77W at 0300 UTC. A broad upper-level low is centered near 26N66W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 25N between 65W-75W. Isolated moderate convection is from 25N to the front, between 75W and the east coast of Florida. A 1017 mb high pressure is centered in the Florida Straits near 24N79W at 0300 UTC. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh NE winds north of the front, where seas are likely around 5 ft. Gentle wind speeds prevail elsewhere west of 60W from 20N-30N, with seas of 3 to 4 ft. Farther east, another upper-level low is noted near 27N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 25.5N to 31N between 53.5W and 60W. Surface high pressure ridging covers the central subtropical Atlantic, anchored by 1022 mb high pressure centers near 30N49W and 31N37W. A surface trough extends from 31N22W to 25N28W, with scattered moderate convection seen north of 28N between 19W-22W. Gentle to moderate winds cover much of the basin outside of the circulation of Hurricane Larry. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong winds extend north and NW of Larry as far north as 22.5N, with fresh winds extending to 24.5N. For the forecast, major Hurricane Larry will move to near 17N48W Sat evening, near 20N52W Sun evening, near 22N55W Mon evening, and near 25N 58.5W Tue evening. Large swell generated by the hurricane are expected to propagate across the waters E of the Leeward Islands Sun, then spread W of 65W Mon and Mon night, and west of 70W Tue. Through Sun evening, the radius of 12-ft or greater seas is forecast to extend outward 300 nm from the center of Larry. Peak seas near the center will build to over 40 ft later this weekend. $$ Hagen