000 AXNT20 KNHC 011752 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Sep 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm LARRY, at 01/1500 UTC, is near 12.3N 27.6W. LARRY is moving toward the west, or 270 degrees, 19 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Precipitation: numerous strong is from 130 nm to 230 nm of the center in the W quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 240 nm of the center in all quadrants. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. The center of Tropical Depression Kate, at 01/1500 UTC, is near 26.8N 52.3W. KATE is moving toward the north-northwest, or 340 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 90 nm of the center in the W quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 3000 nm of the center in the NW semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 10N to 20N. The Atlantic Ocean tropical wave that was along 53W/54W, at 01/0600 UTC, has been eliminated from the map analysis. It is not showing up at the surface anymore. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 13N to 15N between 72W and 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through interior sections of Africa and it reaches the coastal waters of Senegal near 15N18W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 60 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 16W and 18W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is inland and in the coastal plains of Africa from 09N to 13N between 12W and 17W. The monsoon trough is interrupted by Tropical Storm LARRY. The monsoon trough also is along 10N32W 08N46W. The ITCZ is along 08N/09N between 48W and 60W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 34W and 38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 60 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 48W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 150 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 32W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the U.S.A. from 100W eastward. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong is in the Gulf of Mexico, from 26N northward, at the periphery of the upper level CONUS cyclonic wind flow. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N98W along the coast of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is within a radius of 210 nm away from the center. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N to 25N between 93W and 100W inland in Mexico. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, that is away from the 23N98W cyclonic circulation center. Fresh to strong southwest to west winds in the NE Gulf of Mexico will persist through tonight, in advance of a frontal trough. Light and variable winds will prevail in the NE Gulf of Mexico during the upcoming weekend. A ridge will dominate the Gulf region, producing mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds through Friday. Pulsing fresh winds are expected to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 13N81W, about 150 nm to the east of the coast of Nicaragua. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 13N to 16N between 76W and the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. Some slow development of this feature remains possible during the next couple of days if it remains in the open water, while moving west-northwestward or northwestward 5 to 10 mph, near the coast of Central America. The system will have another opportunity for gradual development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rains are possible in parts of Central America and in the Yucatan Peninsula, later this week and into the weekend. Please, refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, beyond NW Nicaragua, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm to 120 on either side of the monsoon trough. The pressure gradient between a ridge east of Florida and lower pressure in northern Colombia will support moderate to fresh trade winds in the south central and northwestern Caribbean Sea through at least Fri. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through the weekend. An area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized shower activity in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development of this system remains possible during the next couple of days if it remains over open water while moving west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of Central America. The system will have another opportunity for gradual development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rains are possible across parts of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula later this week into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Information that is about T.S. LARRY and T.D. KATE is given in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. An upper level trough is along 30N70W, to the central Bahamas, to Honduras in Central America. A surface trough is along 26N75W 23N76W 20N78W. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the areas that are from 20N northward from 60W westward. The southernmost point of a cold front is 31N33W. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 29N27W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 31N northward between 24W and 40W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward from the cold front eastward. Fresh to strong southwest winds are expected just off northeastern Florida today, in advance of a frontal trough that is forecast to move southward to northern Florida and the northwestern waters through Fri night. The trough will weaken as it moves across the northern waters W of 70W Sat through Sun night. Looking ahead: swells generated by tropical cyclone Larry are expected to reach the waters NE and E of the Leeward Islands on Sun, likely reaching 65W on Mon. $$ mt/ja