000 AXNT20 KNHC 010557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Sep 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Ida is centered near 36.2N 84.6W at 01/0300 or 40 nm NW of Knoxville, Tennessee, and moving ENE at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 36 kt. Ida will bring heavy rain with potential flooding to the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast over the next couple of days. Please read the latest WPC Public Advisory at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/tropical_advisories.php?storm=IDA and the Storm Summary Message at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html, for more details. Tropical Depression Kate is centered near 25.4N 51.3W at 01/0300 UTC or 785 nm NE of the N Leeward Islands and moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas are peaking at 10 to 11 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 23N to 27N between 50W and 53W. Little change in intensity is forecast through Wed night, before gradually dissipating starting Thur morning. Kate will stay on a NNW track through Thur morning, then turn toward N through Friday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Twelve is centered near 12.1N 23.2W at 01/0300 UTC or 180 nm SSE of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, and moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are peaking near 10 ft. Numerous moderate and strong convection is seen mainly W of the center from 10N to 14N between 22W and 27W. Twelve will likely strengthen into a tropical storm later today, and might become a hurricane on Thur. The latest forecast track has the system staying on a WNW course through Thur morning, then turning toward the NW starting Thur night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from 19N southward, passing very close to Tropical Depression Twelve and moving W 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 14N to 16N between 20W and 25W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W from 20N southward and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are found from 07N to 10N between 40W and 48W. A weak Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 17N southward into French Guiana, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are evident from 07N to 10N between 50W and 53W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W from the Dominican Republic southward through NW Venezuela into central Colombia, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over Hispaniola and NE Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough exits the Gambia coast near 13N17W, passing through Tropical Depression Twelve to 09N32W to 09N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found from 10N to 17N between the African coast and 20W, and farther W from 07N to 12N between 28W and 40W. Based on the latest analysis, there is no ITCZ present. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge stretches eastward from the central Mexican coast across the central Gulf to S Florida. Moderate to fresh with locally strong SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the NE Gulf. Light winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft are present over the SE Gulf, while light to gentle SSE to SW winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder of Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds over the NE Gulf will persist through Wed night ahead of a frontal boundary. Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region producing mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds through Fri. Pulsing fresh winds are expected northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low near central Cuba is triggering scattered showers and a few thunderstorms near the S coast of W Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional convection across the Caribbean Basin. Moderate with locally fresh trades and seas at 4 to 5 ft are present across the W and S central basin. Light to gentle with locally moderate trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail over the rest of the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge east of Florida and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the S central and NW Caribbean. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through the weekend. An area of low pressure will produce some disorganized shower activity over the SW Caribbean Sea. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves westward or west- northwestward at 5 to 10 kt toward Central America. Thereafter, land interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico will likely limit further development of this system. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Depressions Kate and Twelve. A surface trough extends east-northeastward from SE of Bermuda near 29N59W to 30N47W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring N of 28N between 44W and 56W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection across the Atlantic Basin. A large 1023 mb high is over the N central Atlantic near 35N44W. This feature is providing light to gentle trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft N of 10N between 40W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, except near Tropical Depression Kate. Gentle to moderate S to SSW winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are seen N of 29N between 76W and the N Florida-Georgia coast. Moderate to fresh NE trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are evident near the Canary Islands N of 15N between the NW African coast and 40W. Outside the influence of Tropical Depression Twelve, gentle to moderate SE to SSW winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 65W, a weak pressure gradient will prevail through tonight with mainly light to gentle winds. Fresh to strong southwest winds are expected just off northeastern Florida on Wed ahead of a frontal boundary forecast to clip the northwestern waters late Thu into Fri and weaken as it moves across the northern waters W of 70W Sat through Sun night. $$ Chan