105 AXNT20 KNHC 311822 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Aug 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Ida was in NE Mississippi. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N northward in the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 23N northward in the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered strong is inland, in the Gulf of Mexico to 32N in Florida, SE Alabama, and in SW Georgia from 29.5N to 32N between 84W and 86W. Please, read the latest WPC Public Advisory at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/tropical_advisories.php?storm=IDA, and the Storm Summary Message at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html, for more details. The center of Tropical Depression Kate, at 31/1500 UTC, is near 23.5N 50.8W, or about 900 nm to the ESE of Bermuda. Kate is moving N, or 010 degrees, 04 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. A surface trough, the remnant of a cold front, is along 31N47W 28N59W 31N70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 400 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and within 300 nm of the center everywhere else except for the west quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1006 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 10.5N. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 250 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 600 nm of the center in the W quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 09N to 11N between 14W and 16W. The precipitation pattern continues to show signs of organization. The environmental conditions are conducive for additional development of this system. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so, while the low pressure center moves westward to west-northwestward 10 to 15 mph. The formation chance through 48 hours is high. Please, refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, at: www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 100 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 10.5N to 11.5N. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 330 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 120 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 07N to 12N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow is between the 68W tropical wave and the 50W tropical wave. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 625 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 14N southward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 11N16W, through the 1006 mb low pressure center that is along the 18W/19W tropical wave, to 10N21W 10N27W 07N38W 05N44W. The ITCZ continues from 05N44W to 05N49W. Precipitation: no other significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. GULF OF MEXICO... Precipitation that is related to T.D. IDA is given in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N98W along the coast of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 20N to 25N between 93W and 101W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 23N to 24N between 94W and 95W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, that is away from the 23N98W cyclonic circulation center. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds in the north central Gulf of Mexico will shift to the NE Gulf, from tonight through Wednesday night, and to northeast of the Gulf on Thursday, in advance of a frontal boundary. A ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico, producing mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds through Friday. Pulsing fresh winds are expected to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula, at night through Saturday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop in the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Some slow development of this system is possible by the end of the week, if the system remains over water. This system is expected to move gradually west-northwestward or northwestward 5 to 10 mph, toward Central America. Please, refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from 77W, beyond Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. An upper level trough passes through the Bahamas to Honduras. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 17N southward between 72W and 85W. The pressure gradient, between a ridge east of Florida and lower pressure in northern Colombia, will support moderate to fresh trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop in the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Some slow development of this system is possible by the end of the week, if the system remains over water. This system is expected to move gradually west- northwestward or northwestward toward Central America. This will bring some increase in winds and seas, first in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and then in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, from Wednesday through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Information that is about T.D. KATE is given in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. A surface trough, the remnant of a cold front, is along 31N47W 28N59W 31N70W, about 340 nm to the NNW of T.D. KATE. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is between T.D. KATE and the surface trough, between 42W and 56W. An upper level trough is along 30N70W, on top of the Bahamas, to Honduras in Central America. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the areas that are from the Greater Antilles northward from 70W westward. A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 29N27W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 22N northward from 40W eastward. A weak pressure gradient will prevail through tonight with mainly light to gentle winds. Fresh to strong southwest winds are expected just off northeastern Florida on Wednesday, in advance of a frontal boundary that is forecast to clip the northwestern waters, from late Thursday into Friday. $$ mt