171 AXNT20 KNHC 302148 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Aug 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Ida is centered near 32.6N 90.3W at 30/2100 UTC or 20 nm NNW of Jackson, Mississippi moving NNE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas near the southeast coast of Louisiana and south of Alabama and the extreme western Florida Peninsula at 8 to 11 ft. Over the Gulf, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted north of 25N between 83W and 92W. Ida is forecast to remain a tropical depression through Wed night, becoming extratropical Thu morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Kate is centered near 22.7N 50.9W at 30/2100 UTC or 700 nm ENE of the Leeward Islands moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 13 to 14 ft. Kate is a sheared tropical cyclone with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection noted from 23N to 26N between 46W and 49W, and from 20N to 22N between 47W and 50W. Kate is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression Tue morning, then strengthen back to a tropical storm Wed morning, and change little in intensity through the end of the week. Kate is forecast to dissipate by Sat afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Satellite-derived wind data and satellite imagery indicate that an 1007 mb area of low pressure has formed over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic near 08.5N15.5W in association with a tropical wave that recently moved off the west coast of Africa. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 14W and 20W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 13W and 17W. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt over the eastern tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 16W from 19N southward from West Africa into the tropical N Atlantic, moving W at 10 kt. Associated convection is described in the section above. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 33W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 27W and 36W. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 46W from 17N southward, moving slowly W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to 23N between 41W and 49W. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea along 63W near the Anegada Passage from 20N southward to across eastern Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted in association with this tropical wave over water, however thunderstorms are occurring over portions of northern Venezuela and near the A-B-C Islands. A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 86W near the Gulf of Honduras from 19N southward across central Venezuela and Nicaragua, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Enhanced by the eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough, scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 73W and 86W, and from 15N to 18N between 84W and 86W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near the border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 11N21W to 14N31W to 11N42W. In addition to the convection noted in association with the Atlantic Ocean tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 22W and 26W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Ida. Outside of the effects of Ida, winds are moderate or weaker across the Gulf primarily out of the south. Seas are 3 to 6 ft over most of the Gulf, mainly due to swell from Ida. For the forecast, Ida will continue moving northward while weakening. Fresh to strong winds associated with Ida will continue to affect the north-central gulf early this evening and gradually diminish tonight. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin afterwards continuing through Wed. Winds will further diminish to gentle to locally moderate by mid-week. Light to moderate easterly winds return during the weekend with the exception of moderate to fresh winds pulsing NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection. The pressure-gradient between ridging east of Florida and lower pressure over northern Colombia is contributing toward fresh to locally strong NE to E winds over the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere the trades are moderate or weaker. Seas peak at 6 to 8 ft just north of Colombia, and are 3 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are expected through Tue, except for locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through this evening. A tropical wave will enhance winds in the SW Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras Wed into Thu. Moderate to locally fresh winds will dominate the basin through the remainder of the forecast period, except this weekend as fresh to locally strong winds return across the south central Caribbean including the Gulf of Venezuela. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Kate and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A weak cold front extends from 31N46W to 27N56W to 31N70W. SW winds ahead of the front are fresh to strong north of 29N between 35W and 47W. A prefrontal trough is north of 29N within 90 nm ahead of the front. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 29N between 38W and 51W in association with these features. A weak 1018 mb high is centered at 29N25W and the trades, except in the vicinity of Tropical Storm Kate, are moderate or weaker across the basin. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the basin outside of Kate, except 3 to 5 ft west of 65W. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will prevail through Wed, which will result in light to gentle variable winds. Moderate to fresh SW winds will develop over NE Florida offshore waters by Wed night ahead of a cold front moving E just N of the area. Moderate to fresh SW winds will cover the offshore waters N of the Bahamas through Thu. $$ Lewitsky