000 AXNT20 KNHC 301022 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Aug 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ida is centered near 31.0N 90.8W at 30/0900 UTC or 80 nm SSW of Jackson Mississippi moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Sea heights near the SE Louisiana coast are as high as 15 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection prevail N of 26N between 86W-94W. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana early this morning and move into southwestern Mississippi later this morning. Ida is then forecast to move over central and northeastern Mississippi this afternoon and tonight, and move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4, for more details. Please, refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for marine impacts. Post-Tropical Cyclone Julian is centered near 38.1N 41.9W at 30/0300 UTC or 710 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving NE at 23 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 30N between 35W-47W. This general motion is expected to continue through Monday, followed by a turn to the north, then northeast Monday night into Tuesday. Please, read the last NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the last Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. Tropical Depression Ten is centered near 20.8N 50.6W at 30/0900 UTC or 670 nm ENE of the Leeward Islands moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 18N to 21N between 45W and 51W. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Slow strengthening is forecast to begin in the latter part of this week. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa by Monday night. Environmental conditions appear conducive for the development of a low pressure area once the wave moves offshore, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter part of the week while the system moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt over the eastern tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W from 18N southward and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 26W and 31W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 17N southward and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 11N to 15N between 36W and 45W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W from 19N southward across the Lesser Antilles into NE Venezuela, and moving W around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over Venezuela. Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from 19N southward across W Panama into the E Pacific, and moving W near 10 to 15 kt. Enhanced by the E end of the Pacific monsoon trough, scattered to numerous moderate convection are present over Panama, N Colombia, and the SW Caribbean S of 12N between 73W-84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough exits the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W through a 1011 mb low pressure at 15N28W to 10N43W. The ITCZ then stretches from 09N48W to 10N58W. Numerous strong convection is noted S of the monsoon trough along the African coast from 05N- 17N and E of 21W. Scattered showers prevail along the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features Section above for information on T.S. Ida. Outside of the effects of Ida, fresh to locally strong SE to S winds and seas at 7 to 11 ft dominate the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ida will continue moving northward while weakening. Fresh to strong winds associated with Ida will continue to affect the north-central gulf today. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin afterwards continuing through Wed. Winds will further diminish to gentle to locally moderate by mid-week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection. Fresh to strong trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft will continue across the S central basin N of Colombia today. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected through Tue, except for locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean today. A tropical wave will enhance winds in the SW Caribbean Mon evening through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh winds will dominate the basin through the remainder of the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the sections above for details on Post-Tropical Storm Julian, Tropical Depression Ten, and the tropical waves moving across the basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with a cold front near 31N are found N of 30N between 35W-47W. This frontal boundary is related to Julian. An upper-level low near 25N40W is triggering scattered showers from 22N-28N between 31W- 41W. A surface ridge curves westward from a 1020 mb Azores high to a 1021 mb Bermuda high. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft related to the cold front are found N of 29N between 39W and 66W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present from 10N to 29N between 25W and the Florida-Georgia coast/Lesser Antilles. Moderate with locally fresh winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft dominate waters near the Canary Islands N of 20N between the NW African coast and 25W. Light to gentle SE to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 65W, a weak pressure gradient will prevail through Wed, which will result in light to gentle variable winds. Moderate to fresh SW winds will develop over NE Florida offshore waters by Wed night ahead of a cold front moving E just N of the area. Moderate to fresh SW winds will cover the offshore waters N of the Bahamas through Thu. $$ ERA