000 AXNT20 KNHC 292353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Aug 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Category Four Hurricane Ida made landfall earlier today and is now inland, centered near 29.5N 90.6W at 29/2100 UTC or 40 nm SW of New Orleans Louisiana moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Sea heights near the SE Louisiana coast are as high as 27 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm of the center, with scattered moderate convection within 300 nm of the center in the E semicircle. With Ida inland, weakening is forecast, but Ida should remain a hurricane into Mon as it moves NW then N into Mississippi. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4, for more details. Please, refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for marine impacts. Tropical Storm Julian is centered near 36.7N 44.6W at 29/2100 UTC or 710 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving NE at 21 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the center in the NE, SE, and NW quadrants. Julian is forecast to remain a tropical storm through Mon, accelerating NE before become absorbed by a cold front and transitioning to a post tropical storm Mon night, well east of the Canadian Maritimes. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. Tropical Depression Ten is centered near 19.7N 50.4W at 29/2100 UTC or 670 nm ENE of the Leeward Islands moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the center in the SE semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere within 300 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Little change in strengthen is expected through Mon, but Ten could become a tropical storm Tue, as it moves N, well E of Bermuda. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa by Monday night. Environmental conditions appear conducive for the development of a low pressure area once the wave moves offshore, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter part of the week while the system moves WNW at around 10 kt over the eastern tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W, from 19N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 23W and 29W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W, from 17N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 36W and 43W. Another Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W, from 20N southward, moving W around 10 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W, from 20N southward, extending into the far eastern Pacific, into the Gulf of Panama. This wave is moving W around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 10N, generally S of the eastern extension of the Monsoon Trough. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 10N to 12N W of 80W. A tropical wave that had been very near the southern Bay of Campeche has now moved west and fully into the eastern Pacific. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough the coastal plains of Senegal near 10N15W to 11N25W to 11N38W. The ITCZ is then stretches from 10N41W to 10N51W to 12N60W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 47W and 51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm of the African coast between 10W and 18W, from 07N to 10N between 18W and 23W, from 12N to 14N between 36W and 40W, and from 04N to 10N between 51W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features Section above for information on Hurricane Ida. Outside of the effects of Ida, fresh SE wind dominate the SE and south-central Gulf, with light and variable winds over the western and SW Gulf. Seas average 3 to 6 ft. Hurricane Ida near 29.5N 90.6W 938 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NW at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt. Ida will move inland to 30.7N 90.9W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 32.4N 90.7W Mon afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 34.0N 89.4W Tue morning, inland to 35.6N 87.2W Tue afternoon, inland to 37.1N 84.2W Wed morning, and become extratropical and move to 38.6N 80.5W Wed afternoon. Fresh to strong winds associated with Ida will continue to affect the north-central gulf through Mon early in the evening. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin afterwards continuing through Wed. Winds will further diminish to gentle to locally moderate by Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure is dominating much of the basin. See Tropical Waves section above for details on a tropical wave in the SW Caribbean. Scattered trade wind convection is noted S of 14N between 66W and 71W. Widespread fresh trades are occurring, with some locally strong winds occurring off the NE coast of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds are expected through Tue, except for locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through early Mon. A tropical wave will enhance winds in the SW Caribbean Mon evening through Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse again in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through early Wed as the tropical wave moves across Central America. Moderate to locally fresh winds will dominate the basin the remainder period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Julian and Tropical Depression Ten. A mid and upper level low pressure center is producing scattered moderate convection from 20N to 28N between 34W and 45W. Another mid and upper level low pressure centered near 29N56W is weakening and no longer producing significant convection. A 1022 mb high pressure has emerged off the coast of the Carolinas and is centered near 32N78W. Another high of 1021 mb is centered near 31N25W. With high pressure the dominating the winds over most of the basin, outside of the tropical cyclones and waves, winds are generally gentle and variable, although moderate trades are dominating waters between 10N and 25N, E of 40W. Seas average 3 to 6 ft. For the forecast W of 65W, a weak pressure gradient will prevail through Wed, which will result in light to gentle variable winds. Moderate to fresh SW winds will develop over NE Florida offshore waters by Wed night ahead of a cold front moving E just N of the area. Moderate to fresh SW winds will cover the offshore waters N of the Bahamas through Thu. $$ KONARIK