000 AXNT20 KNHC 291756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Aug 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Category Four Hurricane Ida, at 29/1800 UTC, is near 29.2N 90.3W. This position also is about 16 nm/30 km to the W of Grand Isle in Louisiana, and about 49 nm/90 km to the SSW of New Orleans in Louisiana. IDA is moving toward the NW, or 320 degrees, 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 130 knots with gusts to 160 knots. The forecast is for the maximum sea heights to reach 37 feet. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 130 nm of the center in the NW quadrant, and within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong are within 360 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4, for more details. Please, refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for marine impacts. The center of Tropical Storm Julian, at 29/1800 UTC, is near 35.1N 46.8W. This position also is about 750 nm/1390 km to the SSE of Cape Race in Newfoundland, and about 970 nm/1795 km to the W of the Azores. JULIAN is moving toward the NE, or 045 degrees, 15 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 240 nm of the center in the S quadrant. A cold front is to the northwest of JULIAN. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 30N northward between 50W and 70W. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. The center of Tropical Depression TEN, at 29/1800 UTC, is near 18.8N 50.2W. This position also is about 670 nm/1240 km to the E of the Leeward Islands. TEN is moving toward the north, or 350 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 150 nm of the center in the E quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 360 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 03N to 08N between 77W and 80W, to the south of the eastern extension of the monsoon trough, in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters of Colombia and Panama. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 12N southward from 80W westward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 15N southward from 76W westward. A tropical wave is moving through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, along 93W/94W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 10N14W to 09N19W, 11N30W, and 11N39W. The ITCZ is along 09N43W 09N51W 12N61W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters is within 210 nm of the coast of Africa between 10W and 18W, from 07N to 10N between 18W and 23W, and from 12N to 14N between 36W and 40W. Numerous strong is within 120 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 47W and 51W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N in French Guiana to 10N between 47W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... Hurricane Ida near 28.8N 90.0W 933 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 130 kt gusts 160 kt. Ida will move inland to 30.0N 90.8W this evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.6N 91.0W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 33.2N 90.3W Mon evening, inland to 34.9N 88.5W Tue morning, inland to 36.4N 85.9W Tue evening, and inland to 37.8N 82.5W Wed morning. Fresh to strong winds associated with Ida will continue to affect the north central Gulf of Mexico through Monday early in the evening. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin afterward, continuing through Wednesday. The wind speeds will diminish more, to gentle to locally moderate, by Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic outflow is curving away from Hurricane Ida in the north central Gulf of Mexico. The outflow moves across Cuba, and curves toward Nicaragua. A separate area of upper level anticyclonic wind flow curves northeastward, from the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea near the 77W/78W tropical wave, beyond the Mona Passage. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N southward between 66W and 71W just to the north of Venezuela. The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is along 09N74W in Colombia, through 08N80W, through Panama and southern Costa Rica, beyond 09N86W, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 03N to 08N between 77W and 80W, to the south of the eastern extension of the monsoon trough, in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters of Colombia and Panama. Moderate to fresh winds are expected through the forecast period, except for locally strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, through tonight. The wind speeds are expected to diminish to gentle to moderate across the basin by Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... One upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N43W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N to 28N between 34W and 45W. A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 29N56W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N to 30N between 50W and 65W. A third upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N73W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 25N to 30N between 70W and 80W. A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 31N24W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N northward from 40W eastward. Surface ridging will extend southward into the SW N Atlantic Ocean through tonight, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds. A weak pressure gradient will prevail through Wednesday, which will result in light to gentle variable winds. Moderate to fresh SW winds will develop in the NE Florida offshore waters by Wednesday night, in advance of a cold front moving E just N of the area. Moderate to fresh SW winds will cover the offshore waters to the N of the Bahamas through Thursday. $$ mt/nr