305 AXNT20 KNHC 282311 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Aug 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ida, now a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, is centered near 26.2N 87.0W at 28/2100 UTC or 210 nm SSE of the mouth of The Mississippi River moving NW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. The maximum sea heights are 34 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 24N to 27N between 84W and 88W. To the east, a powerful outer rainband with numerous strong convection stretches from 23N to 28N between 82W and 84W. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will continue moving NW at similar forward speed through landfall Sun, then slow down in forward speed. Landfall is expected in Louisiana Sun afternoon, with Ida moving through portions Louisiana and Mississippi Mon. Rapid intensification is beginning and is likely to continue for the next day or so, and Ida is expected to become an extremely dangerous major hurricane later tonight, and will likely be a Category 4 hurricane at landfall Sun. Weakening is expected after Ida makes landfall. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for marine impacts. Tropical Depression Ten is centered near 15.6N 50.0W at 28/2100 UTC or 690 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 13N to 19N between 45W and 51W. On the forecast track, the depression will continue in a general northward motion over the next several days. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm Sunday morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with 1011 mb low pressure centered near 33N51W, in the central Atlantic, and the center is becoming better defined. Conditions remain marginally conductive for further development and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight. In a couple of days, this feature is forecast to be absorbed by a cold front. Before absorption, it will drift east tonight, then accelerate NE Sun toward the central north Atlantic. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is noted along 20W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 16N E of 20W. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W from 17N southward, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. Another Atlantic tropical wave has moved farther away from Tropical Depression Ten, described in the Special Features section above, and is now along 56W, from 18N southward. It is moving W at 15 kt. Aside from convection primarily associated with the tropical depression, scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 53W and 61W. A Carribbean tropical wave is along 74W from Haiti to Colombia, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is currently associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 15N17W to 11N27W. The ITCZ has developed from 11N27W to 11N33W. The ITCZ is also noted from 07N39W to 12N49W. Aside from convection related to the tropical waves described in the section above, scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 03N to 09N between 38W and 49W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on Category Two Hurricane Ida, which is forecast to become a major hurricane over the central Gulf. A deep-layer trough extends from 28N93W to 20N91W. Convection previously associated with this trough has diminished. While Ida is impacting most of the eastern Gulf, light to gentle E to ESE winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the western Gulf. In the southeast Gulf including the Straits of Florida SE winds are moderate to fresh with seas 7 to 10 ft. For the forecast, hurricane Ida near 26.2N 87.0W 976 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt. Ida will move to 27.5N 88.6W Sun morning, 29.1N 90.4W Sun afternoon, inland to 30.5N 91.3W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 32.2N 91.2W Mon afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 34.0N 90.1W Tue morning. Light to gentle variable winds are expected in the SW gulf and far western basin through Mon. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh return flow will establish across most of the basin Tue and Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection extends southward in a rainband from Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Ida, described in the Special Features section above, N of 20N between 82W and 86W, including portions of western Cuba. Seas across the N central and NW Caribbean Basin are in the range of 6 to 8 ft, including the Yucatan Channel. Aside from this rainband, dry conditions prevail over the Carribbean with generally moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected through the forecast period, except for locally strong winds in the south- central Caribbean through the weekend. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Sun to Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for information on T.D. Ten and the low pressure east of Bermuda that has the potential for tropical development. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the NW Bahamas and adjacent portions of the Gulf Stream. High pressure extends across much of the western Atlantic north of 25N, anchored by a 1024 mb center SE of North Carolina and a 1021 mb high near 32N25W. This is leading to generally gentle wind and seas of 5 ft or less N of 25N. interrupting the ridging is a weak surface trough that stretches from 31N29W to 26N37W. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present from 10N to 18N between 54W and the Lesser Antilles, and also near the Canary Islands N of 18N between the NW African coast and 22W. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft exist from the Equator to 06N between 35W and the S American coast. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4to 6 ft prevail elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of west Africa by the middle of next week, and this wave has some potential for tropical development thereafter. For the forecast west of 65W, surface ridging will extend southward into the SW N Atlantic through Sun night supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds. A weak pressure gradient will prevail through the remainder of the forecast period, which will result in light to gentle variable winds. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse N of Hispaniola during the evening hours through tonight. $$ KONARIK