000 AXNT20 KNHC 272226 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Aug 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Hurricane Ida is centered near 22.1N 83.2W at 27/2100 UTC or 40 nm NW of the Isle of Youth moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. The maximum sea heights have increased to 23 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends 90 nm from the center, with scattered moderate to strong convection within 270 nm of the center, including portions of Cuba and Jamaica. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will pass over western Cuba this evening, then move NW across the SE and central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Strengthening, possibly rapid, is expected, and Ida is forecast to become a major hurricane by later Sat as it enters the northern Gulf of Mexico. Ida is forecast to be a major Category 4 hurricane at landfall along the northern Gulf coast Sun. A dangerous storm surge is forecast for portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coasts. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for marine impacts. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a 1008 mb low pressure midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles have become a little better organized today. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N-16N between 44W-50W. Additional development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form later tonight or Saturday before it moves into a less favorable environment. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward tonight, then turn northward Saturday. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. An elongated 1014 mb low pressure centered east of Bermuda near 33N53W has a surface trough that extends SW from it to 29N59W. Disorganized scattered moderate convection is noted from 28N to 34N between 50W and 56W. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development. However, a tropical depression could still form over the weekend. The system is expected to drift eastward through Saturday, then accelerate northeastward Sunday toward the central north Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W from 18N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 03N-11N between 24W-36W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W from Venezuela to Puerto Rico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is related to the wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 13N31W to 13N48W. The ITCZ continues from 10N51W to 09N60W. Aside from the convection discussed in the sections above, isolated moderate convection is noted from 08N-15N between 36W- 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features Section above for information on recently upgraded Hurricane Ida, which is forecast to become a major hurricane over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. A surface trough extends from Louisiana to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted N of 27N between 87W and 92W. Fresh E to SE winds are located E of this trough over much of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area. Another surface trough that had been along the Texas coast has dissipated, along with associated convection. Gentle wind and slight seas dominate the western Gulf. A band of showers and thunderstorms has moved W of the FL peninsula this afternoon. This activity should diurnally diminish. Hurricane Ida near 22.1N 83.2W 985 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Ida will move to 23.5N 84.8W Sat morning, 25.3N 86.9W Sat afternoon, 27.1N 89.0W Sun morning, 28.6N 90.6W Sun afternoon, inland to 30.0N 91.3W Mon morning, and move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.5N 91.1W Mon afternoon. Ida will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 34.4N 89.3W Tue afternoon. Light to gentle variable winds are expected in the SW gulf and far western basin through Mon. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh return flow will establish across the basin Tue and Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Hurricane Ida is currently affecting portions of the NW Caribbean Sea. Please see the Special Features section above for details. Outside of the influence of Ida, dry conditions prevail with fresh trades over the eastern and central basin and gentle winds over the western basin. Hurricane Ida near 22.1N 83.2W 985 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Ida will move to 23.5N 84.8W Sat morning, 25.3N 86.9W Sat afternoon, 27.1N 89.0W Sun morning, 28.6N 90.6W Sun afternoon, inland to 30.0N 91.3W Mon morning, and move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.5N 91.1W Mon afternoon. Weather conditions in the NW Caribbean associated with Ida will be N of the area by Sat. Moderate to fresh winds are expected elsewhere through the forecast period, except for locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Sun to Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features sections above for information on two low pressures that have the potential for tropical development, east of the Lesser Antilles and east of Bermuda, respectively. Thunderstorms previously over Florida and adjacent Atlantic waters have diminished or moved W into the Gulf of Mexico. Portions of the Florida Straits is experiencing strong wind as well as the outermost rainbands of Hurricane Ida. See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Ida, which will not have significant impacts on Atlantic waters. A surface trough extends from 28N67W to 23N72W. Convection previously associated with this trough has diminished this afternoon. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across much of the western Atlantic, west of 65W. A 1019 mb high pressure is near 26N61W. A ridge axis with gentle winds extends from this high to another 1021 mb high near 34N36W. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N27W to 24N33W, with only moderate NE winds observed west of the trough. A 1019 mb high is near 33N20W. Moderate to fresh trade are occurring S of 25N and E of 45W, along with seas of 7 to 9 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, surface ridging will extend southward into the SW N Atlantic through Sun night supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds. A weaker pressure gradient is expected the remainder forecast period, which will result in light to gentle variable winds. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse N of Hispaniola during the evening hours through Sat night. $$ KONARIK