559 AXNT20 KNHC 222320 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Aug 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Henri is centered near 41.6N 72.4W at 22/2100 UTC or 90 nm NE of New York City moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently 15 ft within 90 nm over the S semicircle. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to slow down further and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New York border tonight, then move across northern Connecticut or southern Massachusetts by Monday afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been added to this analysis, with axis extending along 17W from 04N-20N. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis mainly south of 10N. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 36W from 21N southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 35W and 40W. Another Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 47W from 19N southward and moving W near 15 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 61W from 20N southward to Venezuela, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present from 11N to 15N between 58W and 65W, including the Windward Islands. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W from SE Cuba southward across Jamaica to W Colombia, and moving W near 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis mainly south of 78W. Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W from 21N southward across Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica into the E Pacific Ocean, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident across the W central and NW parts of the basin west of 82W, including the Yucatan Peninsula. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 16N17W through a low pressure near 13N32W to 12N50W. The ITCZ then continues from 12N50W to 13N60W. Scattered moderate convection is present S of the monsoon trough from 03N to 10N and east of 30W, within the low from 06N to 16N between 30W-40W, and within 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge stretches east-southeastward from S Texas across the N central Gulf to central Florida. Modest convergent winds near the ridge axis are coupling with upper-level wind shear to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Florida Panhandle and Keys. Otherwise, gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the SW Gulf; and light to gentle winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin for the next several days. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse west of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the N central and E Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades and seas at 3 to 4 ft are seen at the W basin, while moderate to fresh with locally strong trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will dominate through midweek. Pulses of strong winds will begin tonight offshore Colombia and over much of the central and portions of the northeast Caribbean. These higher winds will prevail through Tue, and causes seas to increase to 8 to 10 ft. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional convection across the Atlantic Basin. A large 1023 mb Bermuda high near 30N61W dominates much of the Atlantic. Convergent S to SW winds N the ridge axis are causing scattered showers and thunderstorms off the N Florida-Georgia coast, N of 28N and west of 74W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft are noted just S of the ridge axis, N of 25N between 24W and 75W. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail N of 29N and W of 75W. Gentle to moderate NE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are near the Canary Islands N of 23N between the NW African coast and 24W. A belt of moderate to fresh trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist from 12N to 24N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles/Bahamas. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail across the rest of the area. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail east and across the Bahamas through Mon, except for fresh to locally strong winds at night north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage. A tropical wave will move across the area by mid-week with fresh to possibly locally strong winds ahead of it. $$ ERA