000 AXNT20 KNHC 152331 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Aug 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fred is centered near 26.8N 85.3W at 15/2100 UTC or 170 nm WSW of Tampa Florida moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails from 22N to 30N between 80W and 86W. A turn toward the north is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon or Monday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. The now Tropical Depression Grace is centered near 17.0N 67.3W at 15/2100 UTC or 170 nm ESE of Santo Domingo Dominican Republic moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 13N to 22N between 63W and 70W. A generally west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or over west-central Cuba on Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. A small but well-defined 1017 mb low pressure center is about 180 miles to the northeast of Bermuda. Scattered moderate convection is from 31N-34N between 61W-64W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for continued development, and if these development trends continue, a tropical depression could form tonight while the low moves slowly to the south or south-southwest at about 5 kt, near or to the east of Bermuda. By Tuesday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, and a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for that island later tonight. This system has a high chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 28W from 19N southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevail from 06N-09N between 26W-29W. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 44W from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W from 25N southward, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the wave between 71W-78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal sections of Senegal near 16N17W to 06N27W to 08N36W. The ITCZ continues from 08N36W to 08N43W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 08N45W to 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 120 nm south of both boundaries. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Fred. Light to gentle easterly winds prevails across the basin west of 87W. Scattered showers are noted over the Bay of Campeche mainly south of 23N. Sea heights in the area range between 2-3 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fred will move to 27.8N 86.0W Mon morning, 29.5N 86.1W Mon afternoon, inland to 31.3N 86.0W Tue morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 33.3N 85.5W Tue afternoon, inland to 35.8N 84.3W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the sections above for details on the Tropical Depression Grace and the tropical wave moving across the basin. The easternmost part of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends across the south central Caribbean along 10N, enhancing convection mainly south of 12N between 74W-83W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the western half of the basin, with seas ranging between 2-4 ft. Tropical Depression Grace will move to 17.6N 68.8W Mon morning, inland to 18.2N 71.0W Mon afternoon, 19.2N 73.2W Tue morning, inland to 20.2N 75.8W Tue afternoon, 21.0N 78.7W Wed morning, and 22.1N 81.8W Wed afternoon. Grace will strengthen to a tropical storm over 24.0N 87.0W by Thu afternoon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the area of interest near Bermuda and the tropical waves moving across the basin. Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 33N72W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds south of 25N, while light to gentle winds prevail north of 25N. Seas across the basin range between 3-6 ft. Tropical Depression Grace will move to 17.6N 68.8W Mon morning, inland to 18.2N 71.0W Mon afternoon, 19.2N 73.2W Tue morning, inland to 20.2N 75.8W Tue afternoon, 21.0N 78.7W Wed morning, and 22.1N 81.8W Wed afternoon. Grace will strengthen to a tropical storm over 24.0N 87.0W by Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, high pressure will persist across the area through the period. $$ ERA